Here are the data updated today. Nothing to panic about whatsoever.
Okay – Graph 1 shows a definite 6th wave starting. No doubt about it. It also seems to suggest that around 3000 is our new daily ‘cases’ baseline, where the baseline used to be zero, then 1000.
Graph 2 still shows that this wave, though, may be fuelled entirely by increased testing because there simply has not been a correspondingly large surge in positivity.
Graph 3 shows there has been a recent rise in newly tested individuals. This might indicate a rise in symptomatic people in the community seeking tests, or a new testing zealousness – it’s not too big in any case.
Graph 4 shows there should be zero concern at this point about hospital occupancy, since we have only one third of the number of covid patients as delayed discharges. We have been in a steady descent in hospital numbers for over three months now. The fear mongering needs to stop. Deaths are still not falling as they have in the past – and this is a concern, but it is certainly not due to any restrictions – or lack thereof. It is a mystery, frankly, why we have any deaths at all, given the incredibly high number of vaccinated people and the fact that these vaccines are apparently so hugely effective.
Graph 5 shows that the number of ‘cases’ is completely detached now from any relationship to deaths, hospital occupancy and ITU occupancy. To my mind, this really is an indication of the totally pointless over-testing we are now doing. There is simply no value in identifying clinically irrelevant positives because it comes at such a high cost to the community and our economy and our services.
The last comment was clearly opinion, but Graph 6 rather validates it. Look at the state of our testing positivity rates. We are now in a situation where they are essentially returning random results, but random results at a high positivity. There is no reason to believe these rates will ever go down now. Why do we persevere? And why does the First Minister insist on using ‘cases’ as a measure of the risks, given what this graph shows? And why does she continue to recommend more and more testing, given that all this will do is throw more and more positives at her? If she isn’t enjoying this, as she claims, the way out is very clear indeed and then people can get back to living freely and making a living without constant reference to arbitrary rules.
I have truncated Graph 7 a little from previous posts – it now goes back to February this year. Look at the history of community lab numbers. Here we are back at the levels of testing frenzy we saw in September. NHS testing is remaining fairly consistent overall. Why are we doing this? Remember when we were told the vaccine was the way out? Did you think that meant that we could stop doing all this? Well, here we are over a year later. We are not out. But only because the strategy is boxing us in.
Graph 8 shows that the recent high positive test numbers have coincided with very high numbers of tests conducted. These have been among the highest ever daily test numbers.
Graph 9 shows that even as positivity has remained constant – or even declined slightly, the number of community tests has gone up. So this indicates that there is no rise in community infections – at all. In fact, the reverse. Any increase seems to be coming from NHS testing therefore. So this is the new variant (?) in a highly vaccinated segment of the population – and a high percentage of positives in this group. And Boris Johnson has said (correctly?) that the vaccinated are more likely to catch omicron. So that all makes sense then. What doesn’t make sense is why there would be any push whatsoever to get more people vaccinated, if the above were true – which it may not be.
In Graph 10 we see how hospital occupancy has differed between 2020 and 2021. In 2020 we had 5100 covid patient hospital days per week (but that was with a signficant overcount in the summer months). In 2021 we have had 4800 covid patient hospital days. It is a very good sign that our hospital occupancy is so low for this time of year but it was very disappointing that there were so many hospitalisations in a highly vaccinated population over the summer.
Graph 11 shows deaths the last two years from covid. There have been 106 per week this year, compared to 114 per week last year. We would have expected a huge reduction as immunity built in the population without any interventions, but it is extremely concerning there have been so many deaths after vaccination.
Graph 12 shows just how little there is going on in ITU across the country. There are only THREE REGIONS in the country with 5 or more patients. GG&C has seven patients across the whole region in ITU and Lothian and Grampian have five each. This is very unfortunate for these patients, and we all wish them a speedy recovery. But it is not a national crisis.
Graph 13 shows the hospital occupancy by region, where there are more than five patients. You can see clearly there is no crisis in patient numbers. There should be much less pressure on hospitals across the country now. And yet we hear of pressures; these are caused by staffing issues. Why are those happening? We have vaccinated the vast majority of the Scottish population, and healthcare workers are overwhelmingly vaccinated. Are they getting ill more often than before? Are they getting ill with covid? Why is this happening? Or are they having to isolate because of the new isolation rules? The Scottish people are being prevented from going about their normal lives – and businesses are being badly damaged by the advice coming from Government. We are being pressured in to getting vaccinated.
We should have answers to these questions (and journalists can use this as a crib sheet if they are unable to come up with these themselves):
Why are the hospitals not coping?
Why are so many staff in hospitals isolating?
Why are hospitals not ready to cope with more pressure when we are going through such a quiet spell?
Why have hospital numbers been falling for 3 months steadily and solidly and yet now apparently the only way to protect hospitals is with more restrictions?
Is the vaccine/booster making people more susceptible to omicron? (The Public Health Scotland data seem to show so.)
Here are vaccines and ‘cases’ presented in Graphs 14 and 15. Booster uptake is very enthusiastic.
There are many EXPERTS who have been saying for months and months and months that the vaccines will drive new variants – and this is why you cannot vaccinate your way out of a pandemic. I am not a vaccinologist, immunologist, medic or any other sort of ‘expert’. But I just invite the reader to go and look up Geert Vanden Bossche, Robert Malone and Peter McCullough. If you look them up on Google, ignore what other people say about these chaps in the top search results and just read and listen to them yourselves. Or maybe try another search engine!
They might be right. They might be wrong.
But let’s imagine for a moment they are right in what they say about immune escape and variants arising from the vaccines, and all the rest of the things they say. What would the situation look like now?
I’m just away off to do something else and then I will hopefully get on with the latest all-cause mortality data update.
Stay tuned ?
Stay sane ?
Stay strong ?
And remember I love you ❤
This information is so enlightening and I just want to say a huge thank you. It really helps the whole family as I explain to my sons about the huge amounts of test causing the increase in cases, the fact there is nothing going on in ITU’s or in hospitals.
How can Nicola Sturgeon do this – put so much fear back into people for nothing, injure her own people with vaccines. I would really love to know the answer to that. It just baffles me every time I hear her – Does she really believe what she’s saying?
Luckily she didn’t cancel my Christmas party from work which was good fun, but her lies have stopped people wanting to travel, which has had a huge impact on the hotel that I work at.
Thank you again, I think your brilliant.
Merry Christmas to you and all the best of the best for the new year
Christine, thank you for posting these stats regularly. I have listened to all of the people you mentioned over the last few months and although I’m not a scientist either their explanations make complete sense to me. I have also listened to Sucharit Bhakti on a couple of occasions, most recently on UK column news’ (ukcolumn.org) Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – part 2, his closing speech had me in tears. I thoroughly recommend watching it.
Also, if you haven’t already watched The Highwire (thehighwire.com), although its an American show they are doing good work in showing the real picture over there along with ongoing court cases, I recommend that as well.
Many thanks for these items Christine, all three of interest; and for all the graphs and your thoughts. There’s a lot there to think about!
this might be relevant for the use of some readers Christine:
Working health Services Scotland
– an NHS service that provides free and confidential advice and health support for people who are self-employed or working in companies with 250 or less employees and have a health condition or injury which they feel is impacting on their work.
The service aims to support them to remain at work avoiding absence.
They may be referred to :
The case manager may also provide signposting to services for help and advice on issues such as employment, housing, debt and wellbeing.
Access to service : Referral can be made by self, GP, health professionals or partner organisations.
Trying to stay sane. Thank you for your wonderful work – please keep going. I have been retired from a career in anaesthésia and high dependancy/intensive care plus clinical research for a few years. That included experience of working alongside a major pharmaceutical company! Happily my own research was unconflicted and largely self financed. I put all that behind me at retirement, moved on to other things and never imagined that I would return my focus to biological science. Two sons have been involved in relevant work, one in immunology and the other genetics, so we have good discussions, despite the fact that they too both moved on – one to IT.
Christine thanks for this festive gift of rigorous research. The cabal of public health experts who are advising Sturgeon have no interest in the truth. As a behavioural researcher and analyst I have absolutely no doubt that what I call the “fearcasting” ( that’s the inflated worst case scenario data), used in preference to actual empirical data from the country most affected. There is also “sludging” That’s a misleading, manipulative messaging designed to create both fear and compliance. No sane individual could look at those charts and conclude that anything other than over-testing is the cause of this confected crisis. As to the motives of politicians. A big part for me is their desire to divert from issues like Brexit and the failure to get a referendum, they also like to pose as saviour , their slavish adherence to official expert advice and general low wattage intellects and lack of curiosity. That means mediocre official experts acting well out of their expertise domain, like Jason Leitch , Linda Bauld and Stephen Reicher, can bamboozle them with alleged data. They say politics is showbiz for ugly people. Maybe public health advice is show is for neurotic people. ? Anyway a happy Christmas and chose your own rules as our leaders clearly do. ??