No good news here, but maybe some less bad. That’s the best I can say.
Graph 1 shows the extent of our excess after 30 consecutive weeks.
Graph 2 shows that excess deaths continue to happen at an extraordinary rate in the home. Deaths in hospital are now trending to more normal levels.
Graph 3 shows an extraordinary fall in excess cancer deaths, which is, of course, great news. It’s a concurrent drop in all three locations of home, hospitals and care homes, so it doesn’t look like a reporting error. If it is an error, it will be rectified in next week’s update. But this is a sudden and significant deficit in cancer deaths.
Graph 4 – Dementia deaths continue to be in excess but are settling back to average.
Graph 5 – Circulatory deaths continue to be high, and the baseline is still rising. All the excess is happening at home.
Graph 6 – Respiratory deaths continue to be low.
Graph 7 – Covid deaths continue their steady march downwards.
Graph 8 – the data represented in this graph are horrifying. We have now had 2000 excess deaths from ‘other’ causes. This time last year we had had 600 fewer than this. These deaths continue to rise at an alarming rate and it really represents a great deal of sadness.
Graph 9 – note how prolonged and severe this period of excess death has been in the last 30 weeks and how it compares to waves 1 and 2 of covid last year.
Graph 10 – see how many weeks in 2021 our excess deaths have exceeded those of the same weeks in 2020.
Graph 11 – the yellow line indicates the level below which deaths this year must now remain in order to have fewer excess deaths in 2021 than in 2020.
Graph 12 – in 2020 excess deaths followed covid deaths reasonably well. Then in 2021 initially covid deaths actually exceeded excess deaths, but then this situation has been reversed and we have many more excess deaths than covid deaths.
Graph 13 – never before after a year with a big leap in excess death has there followed a year of similar death rate. And yet that is the case in 2021. We are neck and neck with 2020 for excess death. This is a terrible situation and one the government and all the relevant authorities should be deeply concerned about.
Graph 14 – mortality in Scotland the last two years, in the context of the years since 1974.
Stay tuned 📺
Stay sane 🧠
Stay strong 💪
And remember I love you ❤