An Update on All-Cause Deaths as of 25th October 2021

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Hello Friends!

 

Here is the update on deaths in Scotland, as of week beginning 25th October 2021. I will put up an accompanying vlog on YouTube under Inform Scotland.

NOTE: all excess death counts are in excess of the 5 year average calculated for 2015-2019 so not to use the highly unusual 2020 as any contributor to the baseline.

 

Graph 1 shows the really ghastly excess in deaths is now very close to the short-lived maximum we saw in January this year. We have been trending up now for 30 weeks and this is the 23rd consecutive week of excess.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Deaths in care homes have been trending up for 33 weeks. Deaths in hospitals have been trending up for 30 weeks. Deaths in the home are remaining extremely elevated. This is all coming together to create a big excess in deaths. In deaths in hospitals it doesn’t look like the trend is changing.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Cancer deaths have fallen in terms of excess this week, but the trend is clearly up, as seen in Graphs 4 and 5 (blue trendline), where we see that in 2020 cancer deaths were flat but in slight decline, and have now swung to be in an incline.

Graph 3

Graphs 4&5

 

Graph 6 – since Week 55 – that is 41 weeks ago, dementia deaths have been trending up. That is partly because they went in to deficit following the first wave of covid. Covid kills OVERWHELMINGLY the very elderly – and these are the people in the dementia age bracket. So we would expect a period of deficit and then an upwards trend. But they do look to be trending in excess and if that doesn’t change soon we will see again that we are causing suffering in this group through the coronavirus measures.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – circulatory deaths have been trending up for 41 weeks. The sudden rise in these deaths in the last week is very sobering. The level has not been this high since Wave 1 of Covid. There is a great deal of suffering contained in this statistic. I really hate seeing this. It’s hard to overstate.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – Respiratory deaths have risen consistently for 41 weeks. This excludes covid deaths. They are back to average numbers now, but the rise has contributed to the rise in excess deaths over these weeks, obviously.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – since week 66, 30 weeks ago, ‘Other’ deaths have been increasing and we are now at a similar number to the number we saw during Wave 1 of covid. The baseline continues to trend upwards. It’s just grim.

Graph 9

 

 

Graph 10 – we are on our 6th wave of covid (see other blogs) and you can see how these MAY have contributed to excess deaths here.

Graph 10

 

Graphs 11&12 – Covid deaths and excess deaths followed one another closely in 2020. But in 2021, they have gone strange. Covid deaths exceeded the excess in the first half of the year and that relationship has switched in the second half. Excess deaths are significantly higher than covid deaths now.

Graphs 11&12

 

Graph 13 – A comparison of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021.

Since Week 20 of this year, we have seen 3542 excess deaths.

In the whole of 2021 so far we have seen 4693.

From Weeks 13 to 26 in 2020, the weeks of the first wave of the pandemic, we saw 4832 excess deaths.

In the whole of 2020 we saw 6155 excess deaths.

 

This continuing trend of excess deaths will certainly exceed the excess deaths seen in the first wave of covid in Scotland and it is looking almost certain we will have more excess death this year. How can this be? How is this possible after the delivery of a safe and effective vaccine (against the supposed greatest threat to our health Scotland has ever seen) to so many in the population? The answer is: it isn’t possible.

Graph 13

Graph 14 – a closer look at 2021.

Graph 14

 

Graph 15 – another closer look.

Graph 15

 

Graph 16 – Excess deaths higher in every setting than last year.

Graph 16

 

Graph 17 – this is an historic level of mortality in Scotland… but this week we have fallen below the level of 1993 at the same time in the year.

Graph 17

 

It is so painful delivering these statistics, but they are so important.

 

Stay tuned 📺

Stay sane 🧠

Stay strong 💪

And remember I love you ❤

Christine x

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2 Comments

  • Thank you this is so hard to read. All the Covid restrictions and preventive measures have been worse than the virus it’s self

    Reply
    • The preventative measures have prevented nothing but done much harm. Lots of love, Christine ❤

      Reply

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