This is the update on all-cause mortality for up to the week beginning the 8th November 2021. There is no good news here – but the excess has at least stabilised. It seems that the Scottish excess deaths have attracted global attention – this is not something we wish for, but it is interesting and helpful to get the analysis from afar as to what might be the cause.
Graph 1 shows the extent of this wave of excess death. It’s huge. We are now at Week 45 of 2021.
In 2020, by Week 45, we had had 5008 excess deaths. This year, by the end of Week 45 we have 4947. In the whole of 2020 we had 6155 excess deaths. So we are looking at a similar number of deaths in the year after the pandemic to the number we saw during the height of the pandemic. This is not normal, or acceptable. There should always follow a deficit after an excess because there should not be an ever-growing number of people in any population susceptible to death – unless there is something happening in that population to make them more susceptible.
Since this period of continuous excess deaths started (25 weeks ago now) we have had 3796 excess deaths, which compares to 4832 deaths we saw during the first wave of the pandemic.
Normally a period of high excess does not last this long – what we see now is highly unusual.
Graph 2 shows the two years compared in more detail. We have spent only a very few weeks in deficit as to expected deaths this year – totally abnormal for the year following great excess death. Our current excess is similar to the peak of the winter wave in 2020.
Graphs 3 & 4 show that excess deaths followed covid deaths closely in 2020 but in 2021, actually exceeded excess deaths in the first half. This implies strongly a great deal of misattribution of cause of death to covid was happening. Then in the second half of 2021, a great many excess deaths cannot be attributed to covid, which shows us that there are many deaths due to another cause and/or other causes are happening. It may be that vaccine deaths are contributing to these or that denial of healthcare is now kicking in after almost 2 years. Grim and unforgiveable either way.
Graph 5 shows more evidence for the misattribution of deaths I (and many others) are quite sure was happening in the autumn and winter wave of 2020 in to 2021. I don’t think it was happening in the first wave and I don’t think it is happening now in the latest wave.
Graph 6 shows where all this death is happening. Throughout this 20 month period, excess deaths in the home have been horrifyingly high. We were told that this was simply because deaths were being moved out of the hospitals – but this has only been partially true. Deaths in the home remained high and did not react to deaths in the hospital going up or down. In the last 30 weeks or so though, what we have seen is a steady rise in deaths in care homes (to now average levels after a post-booster surge) and a more inclined rise in deaths in hospitals. It looks like excess deaths in hospitals have now peaked. But deaths in the home have remained consistent. So the effect overall is that excess deaths are peaking. But at least some of these deaths in homes signify terrible tragedies for people. There is a lot of pain here.
Graph 7 shows that around half of those excess deaths at home are from cancer. There is a worryingly rising baseline to this fluctuating trace.
We had 34 excess deaths from cancer last year. This year we have almost 10 times as many at 301. But most alarmingly, 214 of those have been in the last 8 weeks. I hardly know how to contemplate this. It’s alarming, to say the least to have had such a large number of excess deaths in such a short time. That has been 8 weeks of consecutive excess. There was a period of 10 weeks from Weeks 21 to 31 when we had a total of 177 excess cancer deaths. This is also highly unusual to see such a long continuous excess for deaths of this type. It is quite frightening.
Graph 8 shows that cancer deaths are trending up in 2021. In 2020 they were almost completely flat, but in decline. This change seems highly significant.
Graph 9 shows that dementia deaths are also unusually high. They have now been elevated for 17 weeks, barring one week when they went into deficit.
In 2020 there were in total 177 excess dementia deaths. In the last 18 weeks of 2021, there have been 346, with only one week of a very small deficit. Why are so many people dying of dementia now? This might be a sign that immunity in this age cohort is quite high, because covid normally kills people in this age bracket. It also begs the question: who are all the people remaining to die of covid and why has the vulnerability to covid shifted?
Graph 10 shows the rising trend for circulatory deaths throughout 2021. In 2020 we had 88 excess deaths from this cause. This year we have 262 so far. This is also quite horrifying. When covid hit us hard in 2020, we did not have lots of circulatory deaths. But this year, with the vaccine, we have been hit hard. It is hard to argue, therefore, that covid causes lots of circulatory deaths, as some people do. Most of these deaths are happening outside institutions. This is where the excess is. It’s heartbreaking. There is a great deal of tragedy here.
Graph 11 shows that respiratory deaths are back to average after a very long time indeed in deficit. This is because we haven’t seen flu in a very long time, one supposes, and covid was being assigned to too many deaths and/or was killing people who would have died of another respiratory cause anyway. Now things are back in equilibrium and there is less reason to suspect misattribution of deaths to covid.
Graph 12 shows the alarming rise in ‘other’ deaths. These have been high throughout. There were 1517 excess deaths from ‘other’ in 2020 and by this week (45) there had been 1269. This year already we are sitting at 1691. There is just no way that 2021 is NOT going to be significantly worse than last year. Again, these deaths signify great tragedy and the rising baseline really shows no sign of slowing down. I hope the people these deaths have left behind are able to find comfort.
Graph 13 – there has been a real change in that ALL covid deaths now, more or less, are happening in the hospital. They are dropping but much much much slower than they ever have before.
Graph 14 shows that covid is the single biggest cause of excess death, but the other causes are contributing more overall. If only it were treated from symptom onset, or something could be done about profound vitamin D deficiency, covid deaths could be greatly reduced.
Graph 16 shows how deaths in 2021 have caught up with deaths in 2020 in the latter half of this year. We have had quite an incredible jump from 2019, and it looks like this year will be as bad. This is unprecedented to have two bad mortality years like this in a row.
Graph 17 – only three years have had a worse week 45 than this year: 1985, 1988 and 1993. This year 2021 has been really a dreadful one in terms of mortality. A lot of people are grieving and many of these deaths were preventable. We shouldn’t mess with human behaviour. Or the pandemic plan. It has all been folly. There will come a day when people will be held to account for this.
Stay tuned ?
Stay sane ?
Stay strong ?
And remember I love you ❤