See accompanying blog on Inform Scotland YouTube channel uploaded soon.
Here is the update on all-cause mortality in Scotland. There is no good news here, I’m afraid. And we urgently need an answer to this question: why are so many people in Scotland dying, and when can we expect this to turn around? How many of these deaths are preventable?
One thing we know is that we as a society are causing this to happen. This 19-month period in our history has been like no other. And now we are having a year of mortality like no other. That is not a coincidence. Gross mismanagement of this pandemic has brought us to this point where the last three weeks have been the highest weeks 40, 41 and 42 for mortality on record since 1974.
Graph 1 shows just how high deaths in Scotland are climbing, and the gradual ascent, with an upwards trend that started in Week 13 of 2021 (week 66 in the Graph) has continued now largely uninterrupted for 29 weeks. Covid deaths are only accounting for a small part of it, but the question is why we have so many covid deaths now after so many of our population is vaccinated. And what are the other deaths caused by? See the other graphs to build this picture.
Excess deaths in the home remain elevated, as they have since the start of the pandemic. To an extent these deaths have replaced hospital deaths, but this is nothing like the whole picture. There is much tragedy and pain here in these statistics, but even as care home deaths and hospital deaths have gone back to normal levels and then exceeded normal levels, deaths at home have remained in very significant excess. Hospital excess deaths have been steadily rising for 29 weeks now. It is a very steady increase too.
Graph 3 shows that cancer deaths baseline has been steadily rising all year, basically. There are many in excess dying of cancer at home now, but this isn’t matched by a deficit in other locations.
Graph 4 shows that dementia deaths have been rising steadily all year in 2021 too. They went through a deficit, which is to be expected after the covid epidemic because covid killed people in the dementia age group overwhelmingly. Their steady rise this year though is contributing to the excess deaths figure. I think dementia deaths will probably settle back down to average levels now and so that might be one component of the excess deaths count that will start to reduce over the next few weeks. To some extent the rising excess deaths are a reflection of dementia deaths coming back up to average levels.
These Graphs 6 and 7 are incredibly interesting, and herein lies much of the story of the mismanagement of this pandemic. Barring TWO weeks in 2020, we had an extremely significant deficit in respiratory deaths in 2020. In weeks 14 and 15 we had 17 and 2 excess respiratory deaths respectively and overall there was a deficit of 1697 respiratory deaths for the year. Then in 2021 (from Week 54 in the graph) there has been a simply enormous deficit in respiratory deaths, particularly at the start of the year. We are at a deficit of 1606 for the year. What this means is that to a large extent, people dying of covid would have died of some other respiratory condition.
The extreme deficit in respiratory deaths from January this year makes it completely impossible to argue there was not either to some extent misattribution of covid deaths OR covid was killing people who would have died anyway of a respiratory cause. We KNOW that testing was not being conducted in the proper way. But had the public been made aware of this, it would have made the January/February post-vaccine wave look a little different and less frightening. It seems that if misattribution had been happening, this was the time when it was the most significant. For example, in Week 3 of 2021, there were 395 deaths ‘with’ covid. The same week there was a deficit of 154 respiratory deaths.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that there were 154 deaths from respiratory causes that were mislabelled covid (or labelled covid but the person was dying from respiratory causes anyway). Well, then covid deaths would actually have been 241 that week. That number is quite different to 395, isn’t it? Excess deaths overall from all causes that week were 177. And that makes things look very different, doesn’t it?
At the height of our winter post-vaccine wave of covid, excess deaths were 177 for that week. Now we sit at 252.
This is why quoting numbers of covid deaths to people was wildly irresponsible fear propaganda, and has done significant and lasting damage to our nation. In all likelihood we have altered our nation forever, and not for the better. Due to a lack of context. Covid kills. But so does irresponsible reporting of statistics completely out of context.
Covid deaths now overwhelmingly happening in hospitals.
Graph 9 shows ‘other’ deaths have gone bananas, and, horrifyingly, they are now as high as they were at the height of the first wave of the pandemic. The baseline has been rising alarmingly fast since week 66, now 29 weeks ago.
Graph 10 shows the causes of death in more detail. ‘Other’ is rising to the level of covid. I need to do some analysis of ‘other’ deaths over the years, but I have a feeling this is truly unprecedented. People normally die of all the same things.
Since 1974 there has not been a year that looks like either 2020 or 2021. Excess deaths did follow covid deaths in 2020. Then in early 2021, covid deaths actually exceeded excess deaths, which is explained by misattribution of covid to other-cause deaths, and now we have covid dropping away as a contributor to excess deaths and the gap is widening. These deaths are the collateral damage to our completely irrational societal actions since March 2020.
Hospital deaths are rising, and have been since Week 13 of 2021. The recent surge in care home deaths (post-booster roll-out) is now subsiding and deaths in the home remain elevated. They are not being compensated for elsewhere, they are just remaining high.
It’s very hard to watch this.
But the truth stands alone and cannot be hidden forever. So….
Stay tuned 📺
Stay sane 🧠
Stay strong 💪
And remember I love you ❤