Here are the deaths data as updated yesterday – they do not look good at all. Commentary on YouTube video coming – keep your eyes peeled.
Excess deaths are now in their 20th week of excess. More worrying even than that, the trend is ever upwards. We are currently at a level of excess much higher than at the peak of the autumn covid wave in 2020, and fast approaching the peak in deaths we saw at the start of 2021 after the vaccine rollout. This is the highest number of deaths in one week seen since 1974, which is the earliest year I have the numbers for. It also represents a 30% increase on the 5-year average. It’s huge.
In 2020, excess deaths followed covid deaths – there is analysis on this in this website because it wasn’t as simple as it simply that covid was the sole contributor to excess. But what is interesting about Graphs 2 & 3 is how covid vs excess has changed. In 2021 we have gone from covid exceeding excess (which means that covid was either being misattributed to deaths, or that other causes of death were significantly suppressed for some reason – or both) to covid deaths being significantly outnumbered by the excess deaths.
So this means that other causes of deaths are significantly kicking in now, due to lockdowns, vaccine damage etc, and/or that now covid is wrongly NOT being attributed to causes of death. This latter postulation seems less likely.
In Graph 4 you can see how this latest excess in deaths compares to the previous waves of covid and how prolonged this increase in deaths has been. On the face of it at least, covid is the main contributor, but isn’t even half of the total.
Deaths in the home remain really highly elevated, but look fairly consistent. We have seen since last year this has been the case as people were moved out of the hospitals. But now hospital deaths are on the rise – and also care home deaths have taken a sudden and quite extreme leap. What has been going on in care homes recently? Dare I venture to suggest we are seeing the same effect as we saw in January 2021 that immediately after vaccinations began, deaths went up in that setting?
In Graph 6, you can see how this jump in care home deaths compares to the rise we saw in Week 53 of 2020 in to the first week of 2021 – just after the first dose was administered in care homes.
Cancer deaths have been on the rise, but nothing out of the ordinary. They do look a higher than this time last year, which was week 40. The blue dotted line seems generally to be more over the zero line than last year. Still, virtually all cancer deaths are happening in the home still, which is a change.
Covid deaths remain comparable to but lower than in the autumn wave last year as seen in Graph 8, and are still mostly happening in hospitals. But covid deaths in the home and in care homes are also slightly elevated again – nothing like as bad as last autumn in those settings. As usual, it’s a mixed and complex picture. But these are grim times for Scotland. Deaths shouldn’t be this high if things were well managed. There is a reason why pandemic planning specifically focussed on NOT denying healthcare and not relying on vaccination as a ‘way out’ prior to 2020.
Stay tuned 📺
Stay sane 🧠
Stay strong 💪