Scottish Excess Deaths as of 13th September 2021

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Hello Friends!


*Excess deaths are all calculated according to the National Records for Scotland method against the 5-year average for 2015 to 2019.


I have been keeping an eye on excess deaths in Scotland – and there is much to say! I am going to do a commentary on it on the Inform Scotland channel on YouTube. We have excess deaths, and have had for some time, but it’s clearer in the next graph. You can see excess deaths were closely matched to covid deaths in waves 1, 2 and 3 of covid. But not now as we are go through waves 4 and 5 (see other graphs blogs for details).

Excess deaths this year have exceeded the excess deaths in 2020 through every period, except the initial covid wave in Spring 2020. We have now had excess deaths for 14 consecutive weeks – through summer. There have only been 8 weeks where there was no excess death in this year 2021. You can see that since Wave 1 of covid, there has not been such significant excess death. The trend in excess is increasing this year.

Where are these deaths happening? In the home, predominantly. And these deaths are not just replacing deaths occurring in other settings, as might have been argued previously. We have had for some weeks excess deaths in hospitals too, but deaths in care homes have been low at some stages throughout this pandemic period, except during Wave 1 and then again during Waves 2 and 3.  There have been excess deaths in the home EVERY SINGLE WEEK since the start of 2020. This is an appalling problem.

And where do covid deaths happen? NOT in the home. They are pretty much all happening in hospitals right now.

This is a zoom-in on 2021.

And here deaths are superimposed one year on another. It is very clear the signal on excess deaths in the home is very strong, but has remained steady and is at a similar level to this time last year.


Respiratory deaths are coming back and circulatory deaths have been rising also. There is definitely a signal in ‘Other’ deaths too. So the contributors to any excess seem to be circulatory, covid and ‘other’.

Not much to say about these – see what you make of them. Will do a little commentary on YouTube too.


Lots of love ❤

Stay tuned 📺

Stay sane 🧠

Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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One Comment

  • Very good Christine. Yes, excess deaths at home the consistent measures. Week 35 NRS report was +58% above the 5yr avg. Shocking ! The term we are looking for is ‘DEMOCIDE’. Although it has lowered for week 36 (+17%). Is that odd ? Regardless we’re not in a pandemic. (PCR based cases and positive tests are largely irrelevant). At present 95% of all deaths in Scotland are NON-COVID causes. 63% more deaths occurring from typical respiratory (98) vs ‘COVID-19’.(60). ‘COVID-19’ is the 6th (from 6) leading cause of death in the latest NRS report. I would suggest almost all excess death is coming from NON COVID causes due to 18 months of lockdowns etc. This will not change anytime soon. Finally excess at home non covid deaths to date in 2021 = 3747 vs same period COVID-19= 3324. The real health emergency in Scotland is the NHS backlog and a terrified nation with people now presenting late for diagnosis ,not covid. Shame on this government !


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