The madness continues. If you want to see a video version and a little more discussion of this blog, visit Inform Scotland on YouTube.
See here in Graph 1 what our FIFTH wave of coronavirus looks like in the context of the whole pandemic in Scotland. This is just absolutely astonishing, really. Never has a virus done this – but never have we locked down or tried to vaccinate our way out of an epidemic with a vaccine that doesn’t confer sterile immunity either…. Obviously, as I always say, the number of positive tests depends on the number of tests conducted to a certain degree…. but…
In Graph 2, we can see that the positivity has been very high too, so it’s not just the amount of testing that has been done that is leading to the rise in cases. We definitely are doing too much testing. But the issue isn’t as simple as just that. You can see here that the positivity in this recent SUMMER wave has been as high as in the WINTER VACCINE wave in January.
Graph 2.1 shows that positivity is consistently, day by day, higher than ever before (I’m ignoring pre-autumn 2020 because testing levels were so comparatively low). This is very bad news, folks.
Graph 3 shows just how bonkers community testing has gone recently – NHS testing is fairly steady but community testing has gone through the roof. This might explain some of the rise in positives, but then if we have a lot of circulating virus (which seems to be the case), many people will be going for tests.
Graph 4 shows the testing history throughout the pandemic. The latest wave is quite interesting here. Waves 2, 3 and 4 show a peak which appears somewhat independent of the number of tests conducted. But in Wave 5, it looks, for the first time, like the very sharp and unprecedented rise in testing has pulled the number of positives up. The alternative explanation is that the rise in true cases has pulled the number of tests up, but you can see the rise in the two traces is simultaneous. If the latter is true, that would imply that this is the most severe wave of the pandemic. That’s my interpretation anyway. More discussion in the video on YouTube, if you’re interested. Comments welcome.
I’m adding Graph 5 because it looks interesting to me… but I’m not sure, to be honest, what it might be showing. It looks to me like the number of community tests and percentage positivity are becoming increasingly dependent on one another. Again, comments welcome. Is this our first true widespread outbreak or a testing problem? Or another explanation?
Graph 6 shows an alarming march towards hospital occupancy with Covid at the same level as October/November last year. Simultaneously, the number of delayed discharges is very high at 50% above the level of last autumn. Deaths are also very high for summer. This should alarm any person arguing ‘the vaccine is the way out’.
I will discuss Graph 7 in the YouTube video accompanying this blog… but what I believe this shows is that we are having to do a LOT more testing now to get a return in terms of predicting what capacity we need in the hospitals compared to in the vaccine wave. But you can see parallels in the shapes of the waves of positives, hospital occupancy, ITU occupancy and deaths.Graph 7
Graph 8 shows Covid deaths from 2020 and 2021 imposed on one another. Do you think that this looks totally ok? I find the number of deaths in the summer being so much higher than last summer deeply concerning. We have a huge number of people vaccinated now. Are the people dying vaccinated? If so, how are they dying if the vaccine is working to reduce seriousness of disease, especially in summer time when no-one was dying last summer? If it is the unvaccinated, why are they dying now when the unvaccinated (that was everyone) weren’t dying last summer?
Is this virus becoming more virulent, against the normal trend for viruses? If so, why is that happening? If we had listened to those experts who warned against giving a non-sterilising vaccine during an epidemic, we might have expected this: that it would have encouraged the evolution of more potent variants.
Maybe there is another explanation for this. Maybe we are all immune-deficient from the lockdowns, sanitisers etc. Comments welcome!
Here in Graph 9 we see that there is a similar trend for hospital occupancy… more people in hospital this year than the same time last year, when we had around 50 after the recount. Today there are 805.
Unfortunately, hospital occupancy DOES look like it’s fast approaching autumn levels in many places. As seen in Graph 11.
Finally for today, vaccinations!!! Graphs 12 and 13 show that our vaccinations are slowing down, just in time for boosters. None of the signals are good. Please tell me I’m wrong. And send in some good arguments if you believe I am.
Lots of love ❤
Stay tuned 📺
Stay sane 🧠
Stay strong 💪