This is the day that marks a year since I started doing the stats for Us For Them Scotland facebook page. What a year it has been that has led me to here! It honestly feels like 20 years. I just cannot believe it’s only been one. Same old same old happening – with some extra nonsense thrown in. If you like, join me on YouTube Inform Scotland Channel for a live low-tech commentary on the stats and a few more of my thoughts thrown in.
Yesterday, for the first time ever, there were no testing data reported and these haven’t been added retrospectively. This has rather screwed up my statistics – again more explanation on the video.
Graph 1 shows where we are with the Fifth Wave of Coronavirus. It is subsiding. It appears so far to be in decline at a faster rate than it rose… which is a physical and mathematical impossibility and indicates that there is some artefact contributing to case counts which is not true infections (though there are those as well).
Graph 2 shows that the positivity continues to drop – this is good news. Whatever this has been, it’s subsiding for now.
And what’s going on with testing? Graph 3 shows that community testing has been lower (although we don’t know yesterday’s figures) and as they have been reducing, so have positives. It’s true to say that the positives count is dropping faster than the tests count. This is that chicken and egg situation I have spoken about before. As an epidemic wanes, fewer people will come forward for testing. But the more people that come forward for testing, the more positives you will get.
Graph 4 shows how positives are falling with tests superimposed on one another. They are closely matched. But you can see the correlation, not seen before, between positives count and tests conducted. One has led to the other.
Graph 5 shows how newly tested individuals have trebled daily in recent weeks compared to the previously stable level. We are now at 3, 030, 615 newly tested individuals out of a population of 5.5 million. It’s not helping us at all.
What’s going on with hospital occupancy and death? Graph 6 shows that hospitalisations seem to have peaked. This is great news – but deaths are rising, which isn’t such great news. They normally peak just after hospital occupancy, so they should fall soon.
You can see we have reached the double peak in all four traces in Graph 7, assuming deaths will soon start to drop too. ITU occupancy seems to have reached a maximum and hopefully pressure there will ease now – and surely this should be our last wave? Surely! (Don’t look at Israel.)
In Graph 8 the hospital occupancy compares unfavourably on this date compared to last year. We have 1037 today, compared to 52 on this date a year ago, which is not good news.
A look at deaths in comparison with previous year…. Unfavourable again in Graph 9. This recent incline has been very steep but will hopefully reverse soon – I think it will. But this question needs answered: why have we had so many deaths this summer?
Graph 10 is just a different way of looking at the same thing again – it shows how the last two waves have been very severe in terms of the proportion of positive tests returned compared to the waves that preceded it.
Graphs 11 and 12 show what has been happening with vaccines. Things grinding to a halt – in time for vaccinating 12-15 year olds and boosters starting.
Lots of love ❤
Stay tuned 📺
Stay sane 🧠
Stay strong 💪