As you can see…. Graph 1 here shows that Wave 5 is well underway – never seen before for a virus, as far as I’m aware anyway. Each one getting progressively worse in terms of ‘case’ numbers. Is it just more testing?
Well, no, because the positivity is well up too! Graph 2 shows the latest wave in high positivity. The start date is different to Graph 1 so we can see four waves here. You can see we are at January levels now. In August. We are at double the ‘epidemic level’ of 5%.
BUT, don’t panic, because there is nothing like as much going on in the hospitals and occupancy is still low and still a very small fraction of the number of delayed discharges (patients remaining in hospital for no clinical reason). See Graph 3 below. There is a noticeable feature of this graph, which is the fact that there are deaths at all in the summer… more in Graph 4.
There is much to say about Graph 4 – I will muse on it on today’s video on YouTube (Inform Scotland). You can see that we have had deaths this summer where we had none last summer and that since 2021 started we have had our worst waves of Covid deaths. Can we expect it to be even worse as autumn progresses than we saw in 2020? What we see now is not what would be expected normally in third wave of an epidemic. Of course it looks different if we look at excess deaths…. but that is for another post!
Graph 5 below just shows that positive tests have entirely lost any relationship with deaths, hospital occupancy and ITU occupancy. This is the marker of a truly absurd testing policy.
I’ve just put in this percentage positive graph by day of the week because I think it looks like we can expect it to go higher next week. Graph 6
Adding vaccinations here, you can see that second doses are catching up with first doses. Obviously, there is now a real slowing in people getting first vaccines and we will see soon the same with second doses. This is entirely understandable. Those who have decided against vaccination have made their decision and it is very unlikely they will change their minds unless (even more) coercion is put on them. Still, there is a huge fraction of the population vaccinated now, which you can see looking at the orange line, and yet ‘cases’ are higher than they have ever been.
In Graph 8, we will see now a reduction in the number of second doses being delivered, and this should happen quite quickly.
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Stay tuned 📺
Stay Sane 🧠
Stay Strong 💪
Lots of love ❤