More testing in Moray

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There’s more to the story on the rise in cases in Moray. Several new asymptomatic community testing centres opened there over the last few months. There are now six of these centres in the region that have published results via NHS OpenData – Buckie, Elgin, Forres, Keith and Lossiemouth (Buckie Fisherman’s Hall appears to be closed now, but did test some people in March and April, and appears in the graph below). The nearby regions of Highland (Inverness), Aberdeenshire (Peterhead) and Aberdeen City (University of Aberdeen) only have one each that have published data.

When we add the number of tests from these test centres together, what do we get for each region?

In Moray, there has often been more testing per week than in the more highly populated neighbouring regions. How many tests per 100,000 people does that make in each region?

In Moray (population: 95,820 people) up to four times as many tests per 100,000 people are being done than in Aberdeen (population: 228,670).

As we pointed out before, in times of very low prevalence (currently 0.94 cases per 10,000 people per day in Scotland) the number of false positives will outnumber the number of true positives in any test that has less than 100% specificity. And the people being tested are asymptomatic – they do not have COVID-19.

Let’s confine testing to people who have the disease – maybe then will we be able to move every region of Scotland to Level 0 and beyond, and recover the freedoms we used to enjoy. If not, other regions around Scotland will also start hitting the headlines as rates of asymptomatic testing increase.

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5 Comments

  • Christine thanks again for your forensic analysis. You really are the voice of Covid sanity in Scotland. I am sure you are aware that there is a reported breakout in Pollokshields, Glasgow. This was reported on the broadcast media in relation to the Indian variant. The reporting was largely framing this as a threat to Eid celebrations! I was truly astounded that the rate of tests per 100,000 was five times higher than Moray and tenfold the Glasgow rate. I find it very concerning because that level was clearly rising while a highly contested election between the SNP and Labour. Yet the focus of the public health officials was all on Moray. There is plenty of available evidence to Showa high level of unnecessary travel from the area to the Indian subcontinent, as well as multi generational occupancy as a cluster transmission risk. It shows me and I hope others that there is more than one double standard being applied in Scotland’s Covid reporting.

    Reply
    • I’m going to have a think about this, John. I’m not sure if I agree with your analysis on it or not. But I have commented on it on the youtube video. Christine ❤

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    • Oh, and thanks for finding me sane! Glad you enjoy my analysis. 😘

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  • Hi Christine, thanks for this ! Brilliant work ! I was hoping someone would look at Moray but given what we’ve seen over the last 1 year+ i expected as much, more testing = more positive (false) ”cases” (of healthy people). 20 years in biology i find this entire situation utterly scandalous. The Indian narrative now being rolled out is also hysterical. A variant with a 0.3% difference to the original (which has never been isolated). This is all pure anti-scientific drivel. Scotland should be fully re-opened NOW. Lock-downs do nothing but destroy lives, masks do nothing but decrease health status and increase societal division.

    ps – Deaths from all causes week 18 in Scotland is the LOWEST IN SCOTTISH HISTORY SINCE 1855 !
    Isn’t this supposed to be a pandemic ?

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  • Wholeheartedly agree with this comment. I can’t get my head around how people/politicians are/have been acting. There has been nothing to worry about for months. Not that I have ever agreed with lockdowns(They kill more than the virus does)

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