There’s more to the story on the rise in cases in Moray. Several new asymptomatic community testing centres opened there over the last few months. There are now six of these centres in the region that have published results via NHS OpenData – Buckie, Elgin, Forres, Keith and Lossiemouth (Buckie Fisherman’s Hall appears to be closed now, but did test some people in March and April, and appears in the graph below). The nearby regions of Highland (Inverness), Aberdeenshire (Peterhead) and Aberdeen City (University of Aberdeen) only have one each that have published data.
When we add the number of tests from these test centres together, what do we get for each region?
In Moray, there has often been more testing per week than in the more highly populated neighbouring regions. How many tests per 100,000 people does that make in each region?
In Moray (population: 95,820 people) up to four times as many tests per 100,000 people are being done than in Aberdeen (population: 228,670).
As we pointed out before, in times of very low prevalence (currently 0.94 cases per 10,000 people per day in Scotland) the number of false positives will outnumber the number of true positives in any test that has less than 100% specificity. And the people being tested are asymptomatic – they do not have COVID-19.
Let’s confine testing to people who have the disease – maybe then will we be able to move every region of Scotland to Level 0 and beyond, and recover the freedoms we used to enjoy. If not, other regions around Scotland will also start hitting the headlines as rates of asymptomatic testing increase.