Data for 24th April to 6th May 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

It has been a long time since I did an update – for various reasons. While I’ve been away a lot of media channels seem to be losing their minds about a situation in Moray – I don’t understand it! See YouTube Channel Inform Scotland for some in-person commentary!

 

Data:

 

Date New +ve tests (%change from previous day New tests NHS tests Community Tests % positive +ve tests inc repeats (% +ve)
24/4 177 (⇩31%) 18,384 9,927 8,457 1.0 200 (1.1%)
25/4 176 (⇩0.6%) 16,434 7,827 8,607 1.1 211 (1.3%)
26/4 142 (⇩19%) 9,816 5,120 4,696 1.4 162 (1.7%)
27/4 133 (⇩6.3%) 15,432 11,252 4,180 0.9 160 (1.0%)
28/4 204 (⇧53%) 24,133 16,964 7,169 0.9 229 (0.9%)
29/4 178 (⇩13%) 25,392 20,486 4,906 0.7 203 (0.8%)
30/4 191 (⇧7.3%) 18,500 13,495 5,005 1.0 208 (1.1%)
1/5 175 (⇩8.4%) 19,683 10,474 9,209 0.9 211 (1.1%)
2/5 146 (⇩17%) 14,213 6,414 7,799 1.0 160 (1.1%)
3/5 132 (⇩9.6%) 10,195 4,792 5,403 1.3 154 (1.5%)
4/5 139 (⇧5.3%) 13,744 9,945 3,799 1.0 149 (1.1%)
5/5 85*  11,273 9,506 1,767 0.8 95 (0.8%)
6/5 283 35,576 25,706 9,870 0.8 303 (1.2%)

*data gathering issue

 

Date Newly tested individuals reported
24/4 2741
25/4 2894
26/4 2280
27/4 2772
28/4 4153
29/4 3358
30/4 3113
1/5 2934
2/5 2434
3/5 2393
4/5 2487
5/5 2091
6/5 5068

 

Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:

Date 24/4 25/4 26/4 27/4 28/4 29/4 30/4 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5 5/5 6/5
Ayrshire & Arran 9 18 9 9 17 15 14 13 6 8 18 3 12
Borders 0 1 0 0 2 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 1
Dumfries & Galloway 10 2 3 2 3 6 6 7 0 2 1 0 4
Fife 19 10 18 16 19 24 20 14 9 3 10 9 25
Forth Valley 10 7 7 4 9 7 12 7 15 9 7 9 17
Grampian 13 9 10 13 26 17 23 16 22 21 16 18 36
Greater Glasgow & Clyde 33 66 31 49 55 43 40 46 38 33 35 25 94
Highland 1 3 5 2 2 11 1 4 4 5 3 0 4
Lanarkshire 29 29 26 17 25 27 29 22 24 29 20 9 43
Lothian 32 23 22 14 34 21 38 41 21 17 26 11 35
Orkney 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shetland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tayside 20 8 11 8 12 6 5 5 6 4 3 1 12
Western Isles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

Hospitals etc

 

Date Deaths ITU with +ve test ITU patients over 28 days Hospital Occupancy

(%age of delayed discharges)

Delayed in hospital
24/4 4 12 7 94 (9.3%) 1010
25/4 1 12 8 89 (8.8%)  1010
26/4 0 12 8 93 (9.2%) 1010
27/4 1 11 9 81 (8.0%)  1010
28/4 1 12 9 75 (7.2%) 1042
29/4 5 12 10 70 (6.7%) 1042
30/4 0 9 10 67 (6.4%) 1042
1/5 1 11 9 65 (6.2%) 1042
2/5 0 12 8 68 (6.5%) 1042
3/5 0 11 8 65 (6.2%) 1042
4/5 0 11 8 58 (5.6%) 1042
5/5 0 13 8 69 (6.8%) 1011
6/5 0 11 8 58 (5.7%) 1011

 

Vaccinations

 

Date Cumulative first doses Cumulative second doses Daily first dose Daily second dose
24/4 2,764,607 993,180 6226 43952
25/4 2,771,159 1,042,386 6552 49206
26/4 2,773,770 1,068,704 2611 26318
27/4 2,782,162 1,102,690 8392 33986
28/4 2,789,978 1,142,947 7816 40257
29/4 2,796,810 1,184,629 6832 41682
30/4 2,802,152 1,224,861 5342 40232
1/5 2,811,343 1,263,862 9191 39001
2/5 2,817,752 1,297,664 6409 33802
3/5 2,824,955 1,326,599 7203 28935
4/5 2,833,761 1,348,050 8806 21451
5/5 2,846,834 1,373,882 13073 25832
6/5 2,860,635 1,400,296 13801 26414

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 640 people had the coronavirus in the week 18th to 24th April. This is a very low rate and getting smaller. The previous week the rate was 1 in 560. We are certainly out of coronavirus season and came out of any epidemic a long long time ago!

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ are stable overall – if anything, they are falling.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is very far below epidemic levels at around 1%. We have been below 5%, which is the WHO epidemic level since early February. We are still doing an awful lot of testing to find very few positives.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is fairly stable but dropping, which is yet another indication that there is nothing much happening, covid-wise. There is no rise in people in the community seeking a test. We are looking for infection in more and more people and finding less.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now almost down to 5% of the number of delayed discharges! Deaths have been at zero reported for 5 days. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise. In fact, I think that all our covid patients must surely be delayed patients at this point. Delayed patients are those who remain in hospital for no clinical reason, but due to administrative reasons, such as that their care home can’t take them or they are waiting to get a place, for example.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – ITU occupancy and deaths. It seems all the patients in ITU are long term patients.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community testing. The trend there continues – you can see the gap widening between NHS and Community testing. This tells you quite a lot about where the infections are and where they are not. NHS tests are largely routine and this is why the number of NHS tests performed is holding up so strongly. The extremely high number of tests in the last day’s report is due to a backlog. The NHS is doing an awful lot of testing.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – Grampian positive tests – just adding this because of the recent panic about Moray, covered by NHS Grampian.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – Highland positive tests – adding this in case you were thinking any positive tests from Moray that we’re panicking about were hiding out in Highland. They aren’t.

Graph 8

 

Graphs 9 &10 – ITU Occupancy – there are NO regions with more than 4 patients in ITU in Scotland. I have added Grampian and Highland occupancy graphs here so you can see how long it has been since they had more than 4 patients.

Graphs 9&10

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. Just to re-affirm – there are only 3 regions with more than 4 covid patients. There are 11, 17 and 13 patients in Grampian, Greater Glasgow & Clyde and Lanarkshire respectively.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. Second doses are being delivered at a much faster rate than first doses, so vaccination schedules are being completed faster than they are being commenced.

Graphs 12&13

 

Graph 14 – ONS Prevalence survey – this is the lowest rate we have seen this year again. It is extremely low and falling quite fast. I used to provide a pie chart of infected vs uninfected people… but that’s becoming a poor pictorial representation because the infected number is now so low!

Graph 14

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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2 Comments

  • Well done Christine. Keep up the good work.It is a great pity that we are still restricted in what we can do. I hold POA for my sister in law who is in a care home. I cannot see that she is unhappy as it is so awkward for people to visit her.

    Reply
    • Would you like to tell us more about that experience? People are going through such pain, just now. We really hate it. ❤

      Reply

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