Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
|Date||New +ve tests (%change from previous day)||New tests
(%change from previous day)
|NHS tests||Community Tests||% positive||+ve tests inc repeats (% +ve)|
|22/5||370 (⇩11%)||21,744 (⇩7.5%)||9,447||12,297||1.7||402 (1.8%)|
|23/5||378 (⇧2.2%)||21,002 (⇩3.4%)||9,075||11,927||1.8||410 (2.0%)|
|24/5||313 (⇩17%)||12,177 (⇩42%)||4,533||7,644||2.6||341 (2.8%)|
|Date||Newly tested individuals reported|
Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:
|Ayrshire & Arran||17||15||22|
|Dumfries & Galloway||0||0||0|
|Greater Glasgow & Clyde||169||204||155|
|Date||Deaths||ITU with +ve test||ITU patients over 28 days||Hospital Occupancy
(%age of delayed discharges)
|Delayed in hospital|
|Date||Cumulative first doses||Cumulative second doses||Daily first dose||Daily second dose|
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 1960 people had the coronavirus in the week 9th to 15th May. This is extremely low. The previous week the rate was 1 in 1250. We are certainly out of coronavirus season and came out of any epidemic a long long time ago!
Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ are rising really very slightly, which means nothing without the context of the number of tests being carried out. See Graph 2. I’m not sure if it’s going to flatten off – that really all depends on how many people get tested.
Graph 2 – Positivity is very far below epidemic levels and rising slowly towards 2%..
Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is rising again. This is deeply depressing and is a result of increased ‘asymptomatic’ community testing. As long as people continue to consent to testing when they have no symptoms, the numbers of positives being returned will remain high and the results will be unhelpful.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy (patients with a positive covid test) is now at 8% of the delayed discharge number. Deaths are at zero.
Graph 5 – I have added the Greater Glasgow & Clyde trace, which we’re following with interest because of the recent ‘surge’ being reported there and poor old Glasgow remaining in Level 3. See what you make of it. Remember, it all depends how many tests have been conducted. There is a linear rise in positives here, but there has been so much testing going on, this cannot be a surprise. This has been an exceptional spell of testing in the last week. Epidemics don’t rise linearly. The positivity and hospital occupancy are what really matters. Why do we care how many are testing positive if they are not sick, and not transmitting? You can see from the blue dotted line that ‘cases’ are flattening now and that red average line should follow today – that’s my guess.
Graph 6 – I have added the Grampian trace because of the recent panic about Moray and Inverurie. Nothing happened there so I can’t say it’s over.
Graph 7 – I saw reports of a surge in Clackmannanshire (Forth Valley) from the BBC last night. See what you make of it.
Graph 8 – Hospital Occupancy. Again, take what you will from this…. Hospitals are not busy with Covid patients. All the other REGIONS in Scotland have fewer than 5 patients with a positive covid test in total in them. Ayrshire & Arran has come back on the graph because they are at 5 patients. Lothian saw a rise over the last few days – I haven’t seen any comment on that.
Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations. Second doses are gaining ground on first doses and this has been going on for some time now.
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Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪