Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱 (It’s supposed to be nearly summer but we have ice warnings where I am….. )
❄❄❄
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data:
| Date | New +ve tests (%change from previous day) | New tests
(%change from previous day) |
NHS tests | Community Tests | % positive | +ve tests inc repeats (% +ve) |
| 20/5 | 432 (⇧9.6%) | 28,589 (⇧6.2%) | 19,699 | 8,890 | 1.5 | 461 (1.6%) |
| 21/5 | 414 (⇩4.2%) | 23,508 (⇩18%) | 14,213 | 9,295 | 1.8 | 455 (1.9%) |
| Date | Newly tested individuals reported |
| 20/5 | 5239 |
| 21/5 | 5169 |
Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:
| Date | 20/5 | 21/5 |
| Ayrshire & Arran | 26 | 18 |
| Borders | 2 | 0 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 1 | 1 |
| Fife | 25 | 11 |
| Forth Valley | 22 | 29 |
| Grampian | 10 | 8 |
| Greater Glasgow & Clyde | 218 | 212 |
| Highland | 3 | 6 |
| Lanarkshire | 43 | 62 |
| Lothian | 65 | 48 |
| Orkney | 0 | 0 |
| Shetland | 0 | 0 |
| Tayside | 17 | 19 |
| Western Isles | 0 | 0 |
Hospitals etc
| Date | Deaths | ITU with +ve test | ITU patients over 28 days | Hospital Occupancy
(%age of delayed discharges) |
Delayed in hospital |
| 20/5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 83 (7.5%) | 1104 |
| 21/5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 81 (7.3%) | 1104 |
Vaccinations
| Date | Cumulative first doses | Cumulative second doses | Daily first dose | Daily second dose |
| 20/5 | 3,063,648 | 1,742,072 | 12265 | 37684 |
| 21/5 | 3,082,251 | 1,769,040 | 18603 | 26968 |
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 1960 people had the coronavirus in the week 9th to 15th May. This is extremely low. The previous week the rate was 1 in 1250. We are certainly out of coronavirus season and came out of any epidemic a long long time ago!
Comment:
Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ are rising really very slightly, which means nothing without the context of the number of tests being carried out. See Graph 2. I’m not sure if it’s going to flatten off – that really all depends on how many people get tested.
Graph 1
Graph 2 – Positivity is very far below epidemic levels and stabilising at around 1.5% now.
Graph 2
Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is rising again. This is deeply depressing and is a result of increased ‘asymptomatic’ community testing. As long as people continue to consent to testing when they have no symptoms, the numbers of positives being returned will remain high and the results will be unhelpful.
Graph 3
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy (patients with a positive covid test) is now at 7% of the delayed discharge number. Deaths are at zero. It looks like this is probably the baseline for hospitalisations.
Graph 4
Graph 5 – I have added the Greater Glasgow & Clyde trace, which we’re following with interest because of the recent ‘surge’ being reported there and poor old Glasgow remaining in Level 3. See what you make of it. Remember, it all depends how many tests have been conducted. There is a linear rise in positives here, but there has been so much testing going on, this cannot be a surprise. This has been an exceptional spell of testing in the last week. Epidemics don’t rise linearly. The positivity and hospital occupancy are what really matters. Why do we care how many are testing positive if they are not sick, and not transmitting?
Graph 5
Graph 6 – Hospital Occupancy. Again, take what you will from this…. Hospitals are not busy with Covid patients. All the other REGIONS in Scotland have fewer than 5 patients with a positive covid test in total in them
Graph 6
Graphs 7&8 – Vaccinations. Second doses are gaining ground on first doses and this has been going on for some time now.
Graphs 7&8
Graph 9 – ONS Prevalence. Just AMAZING news about a further drop in prevalence. Down to 1 in 1960 from 1 in 1250 the week before. This new rate is for the week 9th to 15th May and as a percentage it is 0.05%. The WHO epidemic level is 5%. So we are at 1 one hundredth of that level.
Graph 9
This situation is absurd.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪
Christine x
2 Comments
Hi Christine
I have largely avoided scrutinising this type of data, partly for fear(?) of what it might reveal but equally in the belief that the virus will follow it’s natural trajectory. I’d pick up the high/lowlights from reliable sources.
What prompted my research today was a that a friend is now further restricted as he lives in Glasgow.
I live in Kent and we’ve planned a walking holiday in the Lakes.
Although he’s well versed in medical matters, like many, he seems happy to take a back seat and not critically appraise the narrative.
I read your recent article(May 1st 2021) in ‘Think Scotland’ and found it very clear. That lead me to this site.
I’m naturally sceptical about anything associated with excessive hype, and have never believed that the data supported the narrative or is properly contextualised.
I was staggered when in September 2020, Matt Hancock broadcast his lack of understanding of the derivation of false positive rate. At that time the prevalence was also low thus he was unable, due to his ignorance, to understand it’s influence upon decisions to implement local lockdowns.
Frustratingly, the interviewer, although knowing he’d misunderstood, was unable to put her finger on exactly why.
I would hope that this episode will be revisited considering it was 6 months into a crisis he was supposed to be navigating. It’s revealing, perhaps of wider incompetance, that his closest advisors allowed him to be exposed during this interview. Did any of them understand?
Thankyou for the information on this page, which I mainly understand apart from ‘Delayed in hospital’ and ‘ITU over 28 days’. Why 28 days?
I shall now follow the trends in this data and use it to provide a sense of proportion in anybody not so blinded by “The Science” who is questioning, hopefully including my friend from Glasgow.
All the best
Gary
Thank you Gary! We’re glad you are enjoying the site. Delayed in hospital means that a patient remains in hospital despite there being no clinical reason for them to be there… due, for example, to not being able to find a place to go to, such as a care home. We believe there must be such patients in hospital and stuck there because of a positive ‘covid’ test. Then the over 28 days count is simply added because the government reports it. Very long time to be in ITU.
Lots of love,
Christine ❤