For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 12th May 2021:
345 new +ve tests (⇧45% since yesterday)
26076 new tests reporting (⇧68%)
(- of these 17589 were NHS (67% of the tests returned) and 8487 were community (33%).)
This is 1.3% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%).
In total including repeat tests 394 were +ve – this is a 1.5% rate (⇩0.1% since previous day).
4806 newly tested individuals reported (⇧37%)
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 16, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 3, Fife 25, Forth Valley 24, Grampian 17, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 141, Highland 5, Lanarkshire 51, Lothian 40, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 13, Western Isles 0
0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve in previous 28 days
6 people in ITU with recently +ve test
*There are 8 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days. (I know, this doesn’t make sense, but this is what the official statistics are saying.)
65 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days
There are 1011 delayed patients in Scottish hospitals as of 5th May, so covid patients are 6.4% of this number.
As of today, 2,948,604 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 1,526,889 their second.
This means that yesterday 19,604 people received their first dose, and 20,276 their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 760 people had the coronavirus in the week 26th April to 2nd May – this is down from 1 in 640 the previous week. This is a very low rate indeed.
Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ rising very slightly, but that is clearly because of the number of tests being carried out. (see Graph 2)
Graph 2 – Positivity is rising very slightly but remains at around average 1%. You can see from this that the rise in cases is largely due to a rise in tests.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are also rising now. This should concern us, since positivity isn’t rising by as much, and this rise in newly tested individuals shows the rise in asymptomatic testing. More people are being isolated and their lives disrupted due to this testing, and the fact is that for any rise in positives coming back, there is not a corresponding rise in hospital occupancy.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at approximately one twentieth of the number of delayed discharges. Deaths are flat at zero.
Graph 5&6 – Greater Glasgow & Clyde and Grampian cases – includes Moray where this apparent crisis is happening with covid cases. As you can see, there is nothing happening at all. Please see blog post What’s Really Happening In Moray from yesterday on this website. There are also now some murmurings about Glasgow, and I will say I can see a rise in cases in Glasgow, but it all depends on how many tests are being carried out. The positivity rate is stable though.
Graph 7 – NHS vs Community Lab tests. Interesting to see what will happen with NHS tests this week. I’m hoping they will be lower this week.
Graph 8 – Hospital occupancy by region – traces here are from the only four regions in the whole of Scotland with more than 4 covid patients. You can see there is no crisis anywhere. And the Grampian hospital occupancy is falling, despite the Moray crisis. Glasgow, where there is some concern has a falling hospital occupancy.
There are no regions with more than 4 ITU patients anywhere, and that has been the case since 18th April.
Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations progress and the trend of increasing first doses and falling second doses continues. So are we completing the two-dose course of treatment for many people and are now starting with more new ones? Are people not taking their second doses?
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