Data for 30th March to 1st April 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data:

30th March

411 new +ve tests (⇧17% since day before)

17468 new tests reporting (⇧40%) 

(- of these 10761 were NHS (62% of the tests returned) and 6707 were community (38%).)

This is 2.4% positive percentage rate (⇧0.2%) – this is very low.

In total including repeat tests 495 were +ve – this is a 2.8% rate (⇧0.4%).

 

31st March

542 new +ve tests (⇧32% since day before)

28144 new tests reporting (⇧61%) 

(- of these 16062 were NHS (57% of the tests returned) and 12082 were community (43%).)

This is 1.9% positive percentage rate (⇩0.5%) – this is a very low rate well below epidemic levels

In total including repeat tests 588 were +ve – this is a 2.1% rate (⇩0.7%).

 

1st April

400 new +ve tests (⇩26% since day before)

25956 new tests reporting (⇩7.8%) 

(- of these 17425 were NHS (67% of the tests returned) and 8531 were community (33%).)

This is 1.5% positive percentage rate (⇩0.4%) – this is a very low rate well below epidemic levels

In total including repeat tests 474 were +ve – this is a 1.8% rate (⇩0.3%).

 

30th March: 4031 newly tested individuals reported (⇧27%)

31st March: 6382 newly tested individuals reported (⇧58%)

1st April: 5152 newly tested individuals reported (⇩19%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:

30th March

Ayrshire and Arran 22, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 2, Fife 22, Forth Valley 45, Grampian 13, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 92, Highland 7, Lanarkshire 78, Lothian 109, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 21, Western Isles 0

31st March

Ayrshire and Arran 41, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 1, Fife 26, Forth Valley 75, Grampian 48, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 136, Highland 4, Lanarkshire 98, Lothian 73, Orkney 0, Shetland 1, Tayside 38, Western Isles 0

1st April

Ayrshire and Arran 24, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 0, Fife 13, Forth Valley 40, Grampian 35, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 120, Highland 3, Lanarkshire 67, Lothian 73, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 24, Western Isles 0

 

30th March

12 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve

23* people in ITU with recently +ve test 

*There are 17 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

250 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.5%). This is 25% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

31st March

6 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve

21* people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change) 

*There are 17 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

237 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.2%). This is 24% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

1st April

8 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve

21* people in ITU with recently +ve test 

*There are 18 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

215 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩9.3%). This is 21% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

As of 31st March, there are 1022 patients delayed in hospital.

 

Vaccinations

30th March

As of this day, 2,437,543 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 348,635 their second. This means that the day before 27,717 people received their first dose, and 22,372 their second.

 

31st March

As of this day, 2,465,541 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 372,104 their second. This means that the day before 27,998 people received their first dose, and 23469 their second.

 

1st April

As of this day, 2,493,327 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 399,062 their second. This means that the day before 27,786 people received their first dose, and 26958 their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 240 people had the coronavirus in the week 14th to 20th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 275 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised – and confused – that it has risen, given the positivity rate in testing has been falling. There is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill enough to need hospital treatment. There is no indication we need to be concerned at all.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ flat or even falling slightly?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat – or falling? And very far below epidemic levels.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is rising slightly. This is coupled with falling positivity, so there is no indication that there is any cause for concern in terms of symptomatic infections in the community – in fact, rather the reverse. We are looking for infection in more and more people and finding less.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at well below one quarter of the number of delayed discharges… and falling. Deaths are flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise. In fact, I think that all our covid patients must be delayed at this point.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – It looks like pretty much all our ITU patients are long-term, not new.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – ITU occupancy continues to fall.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – ITU occupancy by region – has disappeared. There are no ITU departments with more than 4 patients anywhere in the country.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there.

Graph 8

 

Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations as seen below. Second doses are up quite a bit – no obvious correlation whatsoever with reduction in ‘cases’ following vaccination – more evidence we are on the floor!

Graphs 9&10

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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