Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
|Date||New +ve tests||New tests||NHS tests||Community Tests||% positive||+ve tests inc repeats (% +ve)|
|17/4||210 (⇩25%)||19,331||11,096||8,235||1.1||237 (1.2%)|
|18/4||211 (⇧0.5%)||15,097||6,577||8,520||1.4||240 (1.6%)|
|19/4||199 (⇧10%)||10,649||5,314||5,335||1.9||270 (2.5%)|
|20/4||178 (⇩11%)||14,868||10,957||3,911||1.2||212 (1.4%)|
|21/4||273 (⇧53%)||24,349||17,337||7,012||1.1||305 (1.3%)|
|22/4||231 (⇩17%)||23,302||18,007||5,295||1.0||253 (1.1%)|
|23/4||255 (⇧10%)||19,771||14,370||5,401||1.3||288 (1.5%)|
17th April: 2736 newly tested individuals reported
18th April: 2452 newly tested individuals reported
19th April: 2310 newly tested individuals reported
20th April: 2699 newly tested individuals reported
21st April: 3835 newly tested individuals reported
22nd April: 3377 newly tested individuals reported
23rd April: 3106 newly tested individuals reported
Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:
|Ayrshire & Arran||17||14||21||16||25||28||26|
|Dumfries & Galloway||1||0||1||0||2||3||6|
|Greater Glasgow & Clyde||54||60||58||45||68||64||74|
|Date||Deaths||ITU with +ve test||ITU patients over 28 days||Hospital Occupancy
(%age of delayed discharges)
|Delayed in hospital|
*On 21 April 2021, two previously reported, confirmed COVID-19 deaths have been de-notified following further investigation into the date when the case was first notified to Public Health Scotland. In both cases, reports of earlier specimen dates were identified, which resulted in a difference of more than 28 days between the first COVID-19 PCR positive test results and the individuals’ date of death. Confirmed COVID-19 deaths are defined as only those that occur within 28 days of the date of the first reported positive PCR specimen. The impact of these de-notifications is that the cumulative total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported today is 7,643 instead of 7,645. On 21 April 2021, there was 1 new reported confirmed COVID-19 death.
|Date||Cumulative first doses||Cumulative second doses||Daily first dose||Daily second dose|
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 560 people had the coronavirus in the week 10th to 16th April. This is a very low rate and getting smaller. We are certainly out of coronavirus season and came out of any epidemic a long time ago.
Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ are stabilising at this really low level. It really can’t get much lower than this due to the false positive floor.
Graph 2 – Positivity is very far below epidemic levels at around 1%. We have been below 5% for almost 2 and a half months now. Five percent is the WHO epidemic level. We are doing an awful lot of testing to find very few positives.
Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is fairly stable but dropping, which is yet another indication that there is nothing much happening, covid-wise. There is no rise in people in the community seeking a test. We are looking for infection in more and more people and finding less.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at less than 10% of the number of delayed discharges… and falling!!!! Deaths are flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise. In fact, I think that all our covid patients must surely be delayed patients at this point, which puts things in a very different light to how we are being encouraged to think about the hospital covid situation.
Graph 5 – NHS vs Community testing. The trend there continues – you can see the gap widening between NHS and Community testing. This tells you quite a lot about where the infections are not: they are not in the community because people are not seeking out tests. NHS tests are largely routine and this is why the number of NHS tests performed is holding up so strongly. (Apologies for any strange appearance in the colours of the series of this graph.)
Image 6 – I am adding this image because it is so striking. This is ITU occupancy in Scotland by region – a screenshot from the government’s own spreadsheets. The asterisks indicate where there are fewer than 5 patients. Remember that in some of these regions there will be more than one ITU.
Graph 7 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there.
Graphs 8&9 – Vaccinations as seen below. Second doses are being delivered at a much faster rate than first doses. This means that many fewer people have been starting the two dose vaccination program.
Graph 10 – ONS Prevalence survey – this is the lowest rate we have seen this year again. It is extremely low and falling quite fast.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪