Covid rates post-vaccination around the world

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Date:  6th April 2021

In view of the comments of the CMO, Professor Chris Whitty, on the evening of 5th April, this seemed like a good time to share data from www.ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer on how covid infections have changed in relation to vaccination rollouts.

The CMO said that despite Chile having vaccinated a significant number of its population, covid rates were not going down.

He said: “Is this due to vaccines used? Is this due to the timing of when things have actually been rolled out? Is it due to particular interactions with other variants? We don’t yet know. We absolutely need to learn from those countries that are ahead of us or alongside us in terms of vaccine rollout. The assumption that you vaccinate lots of people and the problem goes away, I think Chile is quite a good corrective of that.”

The thing is, the government assumed that ‘you vaccinate lots of people and the problem goes away’, but the questioners among us did not assume that. Especially having read the FDA Briefing Document for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for example, many of us had questions after reading it; on Page 42, it states:

“Suspected COVID-19 cases that occurred within 7 days after any vaccination were 409 in the vaccination group vs 287 in the placebo group. It is possible that the imbalance in suspected COVID-19 cases occurring in the 7 days postvaccination represents vaccine reactogenicity with symptoms that overlap with those of COVID-19. Overall though, these data do not raise a concern that protocol-specified reporting of suspected, but unconfirmed COVID-19 cases could have masked clinically significant adverse events that would not have otherwise been detected.”

The document states it is ‘possible’ this imbalance is vaccine reactogenicity etc, but did they consider in the trial that the participants who had been vaccinated might have had increased susceptibility to COVID-19? The difference between the two groups is 42%. And the trial was conducted in a low-COVID-19 environment due to the season etc. The study was also obviously very small compared to the size of the groups being vaccinated worldwide currently, and there is good reason to think that effects seen in a relatively small trial group might not simply scale up when rolled out in an absolutely huge worldwide trial.

It might also have been a comfort to the scientists conducting the trial that the data did not raise a concern that the COVID-19 symptoms masked other clinically significant adverse events, but it is clear that it did not raise a concern that these participants might have been suffering COVID-19 at increased rates.

The following show data from around the world from some selected locations. It is, of course, vital to stress that correlation is not causation. And that there are countries where vaccine rollout does not precede or coincide with increased infections. However, I have been unable to find any nation where covid rates have begun to drop after vaccination started, or where a drop coincided with vaccination starting. In Indonesia, for example, the covid rate was falling when vaccination started and seems to have been unaffected in its trajectory by the vaccine being rolled out. The reader can look up these charts for him/herself on the website. Have a look at these and see what you make of them.

The graphs appear first for each country with cases and a notable change in trend and rise marked, followed by vaccination rollout with any notable change in rate of vaccination marked.

Argentina

Australia is a low-covid environment in its summer/early autumn and a long way from the end of its ‘second wave’ – no effect seen.

Austria

Brazil

Canada

Chile – in that first wave of vaccinations, there seems to have been the continuation of a drop in cases, but as the second wave of vaccinations rolled out, there was a rise in cases. Czechia’s third wave began as the vaccine got going.

France – an increase in covid cases seems to be matched in timing with the increase in rate of vaccinations.

Germany

Hungary – quite an extreme second wave seen here at the same time as vaccinations rolled out.

India saw a sudden steep incline in cases precisely as vaccinations accelerated.

Israel’s biggest wave occurred as the vaccine was rolled out.

Italy cases rose for their third wave precisely as the vaccination programme accelerated.

Japan is striking – coming out of its third wave nicely, and enters its fourth just as vaccinations kick off.

Jordan started vaccinating in mid-January and then started to climb in its second wave by the end of that month.

Netherlands commenced its fourth wave during the vaccine rollout.

New Zealand sees no effect – it is clearly a low covid environment.

Norway’s fourth wave commenced within two weeks of an acceleration of the vaccination program.

Palestine started its vaccinations much later than Israel… but the exact start date is unclear. Its second major wave of cases counted is still climbing – very much later than its neighbour Israel’s did.

Poland’s vaccinations and cases have peaked at the same time. It seems to be through its second wave now.

Spain experienced its third wave during vaccination rollout – it did experience an acceleration in covid cases reported just as vaccination started. The big rise in rate of vaccination wasn’t associated with any particular rise in covid cases.

Sweden looks a little different, but there was a rise in covid  cases as the vaccination rollout accelerated.

There was an extraordinary increase in rate of covid cases reported in UAE, preceding the vaccinations reported. Rates remain elevated compared to where they were before. There have been two waves of vaccination.

USA looks a little more hopeful. Any rise in covid cases following vaccination beginning was short lived there and has fallen precipitously. This is great news!

What about UK? The sharp rise in covid cases seems to have begun before vaccination commenced looking at this graph.. but the vaccination programme began on 8th December in UK, so there is certainly some missing information in the second graph here.


And Scotland? Our first vaccinations were begun in early December. They started slowly, but there was a very sudden rise in cases that were much commented upon in the daily blog on this website. This may have been in part due to a change in testing strategy, where we used two genes instead of three for identification of a positive case. But this was a surprise to us at Inform Scotland at the time. It was only as more and more countries around the world experienced a rise in covid cases post-vaccination that our ears really pricked up, but the pattern was very clear by mid-January.

There are many many factors, not the least of which are testing strategy and the reporting of vaccination numbers, from around the world that could cause reporting artefacts which may be seen in the observations seen here. But what is very clear looking at data worldwide, is that vaccinations are certainly not associated with a reliable fall in covid cases in any predictable timeframe. This, alongside the observations in the trial, surely must be addressed. What is happening here? Is it just that vaccinations are coincidentally being rolled out at the same time as outbreaks are due? In very many places?

Or is the vaccine not working immediately? If not, why not? How long does it take to see an effect of infection reduction at a population and individual level?

Or is the vaccine making people more susceptible to infection? If this is the case (which is biologically plausible according to many we are in touch with), is this a temporary effect? What causes it? Should we mitigate against it? Should we ensure people are vaccinated in a low covid environment? Do vaccinated people need extra protection immediately following vaccination?

How long does it take for any increased susceptibility to diminish?

We must know the answers to these questions. Vaccinations are intended to be offered to every man, woman and child in the country, even though many people simply are not susceptible to covid, or have seen off an infection easily. We must understand what the benefit to the community is before we can assess the risk of vaccination properly to the individual if most individuals are only to be vaccinated for the benefit of the community.

We are told that everyone must be vaccinated. But then that restrictions still can’t end even after that has happened. Why is that? Is it because the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission? How can free informed consent be given under these conditions?

Please see the Drowning in Data blog on this website, where the blogger has posted graphs of death rates with covid vaccinations in the last article.

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30 Comments

  • Thanks Christine/team another insightful piece. It perhaps explains the vaccine hesitancy of the likes of Whitty and Leitch. I really value your expertise as a life scientist on this and can add nothing on that score.

    My view as a behavioural researcher is that policy leads on this are exhibiting a a sunk cost fallacy re lockdown, vaccinations and testing. Secondly, they also have a worrying inability to change course when data and (more importantly) outcomes disconfirm their working hypotheses. Third, I also think many have what i am calling (as a working theory) a grandiose protective mindset which keeps risk and danger at the forefront in case they themselves are held to account by panicking politicians. Add to that the Dunning-Kruger element of behavioural and public health advisers without a background in the complex life sciences or indeed statistical nous, being prepared to comment on issues they have no expertise in.

    Together Its a bad mixture for proportion and perspective taking.

    Reply
  • This is eye-opening. Do you have the equivalent graphs for deaths following date of vax rollouts?

    Reply
    • You can find these too on Our World in Data, but people can only die from covid after being infected, and we do see rises in deaths in these countries.

      Reply
  • Speaking of assessing risk, why do you think there isn’t greater emphasis on informing the public these vaccines are still in the testing phase?

    Or the risks related to mRNA.

    Yet folk are turning up to get jabbed as if it’s some miracle cure with 100% effectiveness.

    Reply
  • It would be good to see cases of severe covid, hospitalisation rates and deaths alongside this infection rate data. Infection is not a problem per se if its only going to be mild to no symptoms due to antibodies being able to fight it off.

    Reply
    • We agree, but this is very complex to accrue. Deaths have been dealt with, as stated in the article, elsewhere in the website. Love ❤

      Reply
    • Hi, very very interesting. I was looking for the FDA Fact Sheet document sentences at page 42 you where mentioning, but in FDA site i can find a fact sheet updated at 12 august 2021 with no page 42. Maybe they updated deleting that info? Do you have the original version of fact Sheet where you gained the sentences/data? Cause if they deleted it it is even more scary…
      If you can send i would appreciate!Or maybe publish in this blog.
      Many thanks in advance
      Claudia

      Reply
  • Kudos for collecting this data, but the interpretation presented here is critically flawed and the representation deceptive.

    Reply
    • Is it? The representation is not deceptive at all. But please explain any critical flaws.

      Reply
    • Hi Common Sense, I’m sorry to hear your disappointment. Can you give me a more specific criticism of the presentation? Which parts do you feel are flawed and deceptive? Thanks!

      Reply
  • This matches my amateur research on Google Covid Landing Page exactly.

    I looked at about 80 countries just going alphabetically and looked for increase in cases within 1-2 weeks of inflection of cumulative vaccination curve turning skyward (ie vaccine drive acclerating). About 75% of them did. Many of the countries that didn’t see increase in cases had very little vaccination increase. . These are countries in totally different parts of the world and at quite different starting times.

    I feel like the ‘variants’ are a large if not total smokescreen for this.

    Reply
    • Your perspective on the variants is very interesting. Thank you for your comment. Love ❤

      Reply
    • Just as they will be used to cover up when the inevitable ‘cytokine storms’ kick in to the jabbed in 6 months/a year/ 15 months time, next time they are confronted with a similar ‘virus’. These positive PCR tests are probably reacting to the spike protein, or just the regular False Positives for which the PCR is famous for.

      Reply
    • Today (7/28/21) the New York Times has side-by-side world maps showing vaccination rates and infections. Most of the countries with higher vaccination rates seem to be the same countries with higher number of infections. Maybe there’s a different explanation for that but it certainly looks interesting. Check it out before NYT takes it down since it goes against the current narrative (that unvaccinated people are behind the spread).

      Reply
      • We have a blog on this very thing on our website, if you look back far enough. There is no doubt that vaccination is significant correlation between high vaccination rates and high infection rates. Christine x

        Reply
  • Could there be other explanations for what is happening?

    Could it be that the spike protein activated in the vaccine is so similar to covid that the fatalities are being heaped under the same heading?

    The fact that the variants are being blamed for the uptick in deaths while your research is being ignored, suggests that someone is determined to control how people analyze the data.

    Reply
  • Vaccines are complex substances and how it works inside our body, its interaction with our immune system, etc. is not well understood despite decades of scientific research.

    Vaccines are man-made with a very narrow focus. The natural virus has more epitopes and other parts that our immune system recognizes and develops an array of antibodies vs antigen-specific antibodies stimulated by vaccines.

    Ten years of testing are needed to flesh out many adverse effects. Hundreds of vaccines have been abandoned because testing over many years revealed unnacceptable adverse impacts. Impossible that the Covid-19 vaccines rushed out over six months could have uncovered long term adverse effects.

    Will not be long before WHO starts to retreat from today’s vaccines when many more fully vaccinated gets infected, gets seriously ill and some may die. The public reaction will be refusing to be vaccinated, street protests and immense pressure on the governments.

    Meanwhile Big Pharma are making the billions while they can. They have nothing to lose. No lawsuits are possible as these are given Emergency Usage Approval, protected from claims by US Laws. It is a Win-Win for Big Pharma.

    As individuals, we need to read widely and to decide for ourselves.

    Reply
    • If you are a business owner… Be on your toes. OSHA indicated the drug companies are not liable for problems, but if a company requires employees to be vaccinated, they take on the liability for those problems… Sounds fair to me.

      Reply
      • With all liable people in jail and masses dying off with the Frankenshot it will be a lonely planet.

        Reply
    • Not true … One can never have immunity for crimes against humanity. Big Pharma will be accountable and their individual managers personally responsible before a court of law, in the US and everywhere else on earth.

      Reply
  • Thank you for pulling together data.
    It’s difficult to get a sense of the 2 different populations – vaccinated vs. unvaccinated
    Is there any way to highlight the countries that are fully vaccinated? (I don’t know if “herd” is the right word). What I am trying to see is whether the vaccine complications stop coming – can we see that from Israel yet?

    Reply
  • A couple of countries such as Australia and New Zealand have zero cases, and may currently have very few people who have ever been exposed to CV; could vaccinating a blank canvas explain the lack of rise in cases post-vaccine.
    And what happens when borders open and the virus actually arrives on a vaccinated population that have never seen live virus?

    Reply
  • A couple of countries such as Australia and New Zealand have zero cases, and may currently have very few people who have ever been exposed to CV; could vaccinating a blank canvas explain the lack of rise in cases post-vaccine.

    And what happens when borders open and the virus actually arrives?

    Reply
  • I have another hypothesis: The vaccines are directly killing frail people, and these deaths are being misdiagnosed as covid deaths. Perhaps they had asymptomatic covid before getting vaccinated, leading to a positive PCR. As far as a I know, vaccines themselves don’t cause false-positives.

    We do RCTs for the pregnant and children. But none for frail elderly. The trials were not representative of this population. Sick elderly people don’t enroll in trials. If that wasn’t bad enough, I am not aware of any self-controlled case series or any other self-controlled observational studies looking at short-term vaccines adverse effects in frail elderly people. I’m waiting for some researcher to be “surprised” when they find a mortality link this way.

    Reply
  • It is very sad to see and hear that generation today is embracing and glorifying death, by masking their lives, symbolically by covering the two most important members of the human body that sustain life in the body, most importantly the nose, for inhaling and exhaling air to keep the spirit of life in us, and the mouth eating physical food to replenishes the cells and physical growth within our body.
    And yet, little do we know the fourth seal in the Book of Revelation is upon us right now. yet a quarter of the earth population will die for our stupidly and godlessness’, and corporation is a another name for the devil, and beast is another name for leaders of this world. “The rider upon the pale horse was Death” and hell followed with him And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth. Revelation 6:8

    Reply

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