Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
I haven’t updated for a while – there are several reasons for this… not the least of which is that there is so little going on! I cannot understand why there is any concern. If ever any nation was coming out of an epidemic, it is us now. I have amalgamated the data for the dates up to the latest updated in the government spreadsheets.
Data:
| Date | New +ve tests | New tests | NHS tests | Community Tests | % positive | +ve tests inc repeats (% +ve) |
| 1/4 | 400(⇩26%) | 25956 (⇩7.8%) | 17425 | 8531 | 1.5% | 474 (1.8%) |
| 2/4 | 414(⇧3.5%) | 23818 (⇩8.2%) | 16304 | 7514 | 1.7% | 477 (2.0%) |
| 3/4 | 397(⇩4.1%) | 21560 (⇩9.5%) | 10543 | 11017 | 1.8% | 452 (2.1%) |
| 4/4 | 343(⇩13%) | 14164 (⇩34%) | 4360 | 9804 | 2.4% | 378 (2.7%) |
| 5/4 | 248(⇩28%) | 11373 (⇩20%) | 4944 | 6429 | 2.2% | 289 (2.5%) |
| 6/4 | 259(⇧4.4%) | 14268 (⇧25%) | 9870 | 4398 | 1.8% | 292 (2.0%) |
| 7/4 | 289(⇧12%) | 22093 (⇧55%) | 16403 | 5690 | 1.3% | 329 (1.5%) |
| 8/4 | 364 (⇧26%) | 26582 (⇧20%) | 18526 | 8,056 | 1.4% | 427 (1.6%) |
| 9/4 | 285 (⇩22%) | 20720 (⇩22%) | 13783 | 6,937 | 1.4% | 327 (1.6%) |
2nd April: 4336 newly tested individuals reported
3rd April: 3612 newly tested individuals reported
4th April: 3152 newly tested individuals reported
5th April: 2864 newly tested individuals reported
6th April: 2810 newly tested individuals reported
7th April: 3438 newly tested individuals reported
8th April: 3507 newly tested individuals reported
9th April: 3478 newly tested individuals reported
Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:
| Date | 2/4 | 3/4 | 4/4 | 5/4 | 6/4 | 7/4 | 8/4 | 9/4 |
| Ayrshire & Arran | 23 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| Borders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Fife | 48 | 32 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 33 | 28 |
| Forth Valley | 36 | 35 | 39 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 43 | 24 |
| Grampian | 25 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 37 | 34 |
| Greater Glasgow & Clyde | 105 | 124 | 97 | 73 | 93 | 94 | 100 | 90 |
| Highland | 8 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Lanarkshire | 72 | 62 | 52 | 45 | 32 | 52 | 65 | 41 |
| Lothian | 63 | 57 | 58 | 46 | 44 | 46 | 41 | 36 |
| Orkney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shetland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tayside | 34 | 29 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 26 | 12 |
| Western Isles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hospitals etc
| Date | Deaths | ITU with +ve test | ITU patients over 28 days | Hospital Occupancy
(%age of delayed discharges) |
Delayed in hospital |
| 2/4 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 207 (20%) | 1022 |
| 3/4 | 0 | 18 | 16 | 201 (20%) | 1022 |
| 4/4 | 0 | 19 | 16 | 193 (19%) | 1022 |
| 5/4 | 0 | 18 | 16 | 202 (20%) | 1022 |
| 6/4 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 196 (19%) | 1022 |
| 7/4 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 192 (18%) | 1051 |
| 8/4 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 174 (17%) | 1051 |
| 9/4 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 168 (16%) | 1051 |
Vaccinations
| Date | Cumulative first doses | Cumulative second doses | Daily first dose | Daily second dose |
| 2/4 | 2,515,748 | 414,540 | 22421 | 15478 |
| 3/4 | 2,535,889 | 434,941 | 20141 | 20401 |
| 4/4 | 2,553,837 | 451,057 | 17948 | 16116 |
| 5/4 | 2,565,280 | 456,374 | 11443 | 5317 |
| 6/4 | 2,577,816 | 463,780 | 12563 | 7406 |
| 7/4 | 2,593,932 | 479,239 | 16116 | 15459 |
| 8/4 | 2,608,831 | 500,376 | 14899 | 21137 |
| 9/4 | 2,625,577 | 524,812 | 16746 | 24436 |
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 410 people had the coronavirus in the week 28th March to 3rd April. This is a very low rate. Certainly no indication that there is any need to be concerned.
Comment:
Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ falling – this is great news, not that I believe it has any clinical meaning whatsoever, but this is the stick we are beaten with, so if ‘cases’ are falling, this is brilliant news.
Graph 1
Graph 2 – Positivity falling. And it is very far below epidemic levels. You’d think no restrictions were any longer necessary. This situation is absurd.
Graph 2
Graph 3 – The number of newly tested individuals is falling, which is yet another indication that there is nothing happening, covid-wise. There is no rise in people in the community seeking a test. We are looking for infection in more and more people and finding less.
Graph 3
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at well below one fifth of the number of delayed discharges… and falling. Deaths are flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise. In fact, I think that all our covid patients must be delayed at this point.
Graph 4
Graph 5 – It looks like pretty much all our ITU patients are long-term, not new.
Graph 5
Graph 6 – ITU occupancy is flattening at a very low count, most of which is made up of long term patients.
Graph 6
Graph 7 – ITU occupancy by region – only Greater Glasgow and Clyde has more than 4 patients in ITU now.
Graph 7
Graph 8 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there.
Graph 8
Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations as seen below. Second doses are being delivered at a faster rate than first doses.
Graphs 9&10
Graph 11 – ONS Prevalence survey – this is the lowest rate we have seen this year.
Graph 11
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪
Christine x
2 Comments
Excellent analysis Christine !
My own over-view of the above is pretty much on point with this. And the ‘cases’ definition, as you rightly point out is medically, a nonsense. On audit 87% of hospital ‘cases’ were in fact attending for other reasons. We’ve been in a false positive PCR pseudo epidemic since March 2020. Lockdown measures have created most of the excess deaths in 2020. -5000 (non covid excess deaths at home) = 59K. = completely normal. I would argue even the final 64K figure is also within historical norms. 1993 = 64K (WITHOUT adjusting for population).
Even now excess deaths at home NON-COVID are 480% more than ”covid” deaths. Also 98% of all deaths at present in Scotland are from other causes. Lockdown is killing more people than covid. The time to end restrictions is now, especially as we head into summer because we know what the result of that was LAST YEAR with almost no masks and vaccines. It’s all starting to become very sinister.
Thank you for your comment – lovely to hear from you and we are sorry how you see the situation. We are also concerned. Love ❤