Scottish Deaths updated to Week 7 – various view points

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Hello Friends!

This post is a little late after the update was released on Wednesday – busy week! All these statistics have come from National Records for Scotland and the references are on the charts.

I have organised and presented the deaths to you in various different ways. Hopefully you will find them interesting and useful.

You will see here that the horrendous surge in covid deaths we have seen in care homes since New Year has dropped very significantly and is now well below the autumn wave level. This is good news indeed, within the context that the fall follows a huge rise. Hospital covid deaths are still very high but coming down. They aren’t that far off where they were in the first wave. I have added positive tests to this chart to put the deaths in context with them but I’m not sure it tells us that much. There isn’t much of a signal for an increase in respiratory deaths at New Year.

This is the same chart with vaccinations added to the chart.Here I’ve organised the deaths by age. So the over-85s have seen a huge drop (after a huge rise) in deaths and are now at the autumn peak level. The 75-84 age group has fallen too but not so much, and this was after a significant rise at New Year. 65-74 remain high and the 45-64 similarly.  Vaccinations started in Week 51.

A clear rise in covid deaths at New Year, not accompanied by much of a signal in circulatory deaths (or any others, as it turned out).

Deaths by age for all causes. This is quite interesting – shows a rise for all age groups at Christmas/New Year time, which is common. But they have all come back down again (unlike Covid deaths as shown above). So this shows that Covid deaths may be elevated for some groups, but deaths from all causes not really significantly elevated for any age group in particular. At the start of 2020, deaths in the over 75s came back down quite quickly in the new year, but in 2021, the peak has been more prolonged.

This shows that covid deaths are still exceeding the excess. This is so strange. We have an excess death count, and it is reducing as the weeks pass since Week 3. But there are more covid deaths, which means that covid is at least to some extent replacing other causes of death.

This is just to put covid into perspective. People are dying much more of other things than covid.

For a little more context, here are all causes. Covid is falling in a way that other causes of deaths aren’t and this is what we’d expect to see with a waning epidemic (or whatever this third wave was).

Covid set against other causes of death for the year so far up to Week 7. We are at well less than a quarter of all deaths and I would expect this to fall much further as we move through spring and in to summer.

I hope you found these interesting and/or calming. Please share the information.

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

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