Data for 9th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 9th March 2021:

466 new +ve tests (⇩7.0% since yesterday)

16342 new tests reporting (⇧42%)

(- of these 10856 were NHS (66% of the tests returned) and 5486 were community (34%).)

This is 2.9% positive percentage rate (⇩1.4%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues.

 

In total including repeat tests 542 were +ve – this is a 3.3% rate (⇩1.7%.)

 

3554 newly tested individuals reported (⇧3.9%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 26, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 8, Fife 24, Forth Valley 52, Grampian 17, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 154, Highland 18, Lanarkshire 81, Lothian 62, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 21, Western Isles 1

 

19 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧18)

50 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩9)

614 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩6.1%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number.

As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,789,377 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 123,686 their second.

This means that since yesterday 14,718 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 4,954 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are flattening again, after this step change down the way? There has clearly been another change and a new equilibrium has been reached. Is this the new Covid Floor?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positive percentage rates have flattened too, which backs up my theory further that their has been some change in testing protocols or strategy. This is a new floor we are on, I do believe.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals seem to have settled down in to a more steady and lower rate, and I hope it will drop again soon. We will, of course, run out of new people to test.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast and approaching half of the delayed discharge number. ITU occupancy is also falling fast. It looks like we can expect to see really low numbers in deaths this week and I think we should from then on be in to our low-coronavirus season and allowed to expect some peace from the incessant covid news. This is the lowest deaths for a Tuesday we have seen since October.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – This is the lowest percentage on a Tuesday since the second wave started.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community Testing. I think the testing balance between the two streams is changing a wee bit.

Graph 6

Graphs 7&8 – We seem now to have completely lost any predictive value in testing for deaths. Deaths should really have flattened by now, to follow the flattening in positive tests. Obviously, it’s an immense relief that deaths are better than might have been predicted but it does rather suggest that testing is of extremely limited value. It is not identifying the sickest, or it seems with the season, covid is becoming less deadly again.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – Further demonstration that tests are not identifying the sickest with covid, or those in most need of treatment, or those who are good candidates for treatment. We have lost correlation of positive tests to ITU occupancy as well. The question is: why test then?

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – Decline in ITU occupancy continues apace.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – Glasgow seems to have corrected.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues. 614 patients across the country, when we know that many are not actually ill with or being treated for covid is not a significant number, and it’s falling really fast.

Graph 12

 

Graphs 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. First and second doses are rising and falling in synchronisation, it seems. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this. Both first and second doses are quite sluggish.

Graphs 14&15

 

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Lots of love  ❀

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong πŸ’ͺ

Christine x

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