Data for 8th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 8th March 2021:

501 new +ve tests (⇧28% since yesterday)

11529 new tests reporting (⇩18%)

(- of these 4455 were NHS (38% of the tests returned) and 7074 were community (62%).)

This is 4.3% positive percentage rate (⇧1.5%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues although it’s a little higher today.

 

In total including repeat tests 581 were +ve – this is a 5.0% rate (⇧1.8%.)

 

3420 newly tested individuals reported (⇩0.2%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 37, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 1, Fife 41, Forth Valley 47, Grampian 25, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 138, Highland 14, Lanarkshire 99, Lothian 67, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 26, Western Isles 

 

1 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧1)

59 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩2)

654 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇧4.1%). This is the first rise we have seen but we are still a very long way below the delayed discharges number.

As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,774,659 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 118,732 their second.

This means that since yesterday 14,909 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 2,802 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Are we flattening again, after this step change down the way?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Hospital occupancy falling fast – but today was the first day in a while we’ve seen a day on day rise (see note at the bottom of the page). ITU occupancy is also falling fast. It looks like we can expect to see really low numbers in deaths this week and I think we should from then on be in to our low-coronavirus season and allowed to expect some peace from the incessant covid news.

Graph 2

 

Graphs 3&4 – I feel that we have lost predictive value for deaths from the positive tests, but we will see what the next couple of days bring. It is depressingly possible we will see a flattening rather than a fall over the next few days, although we’d all love to believe the falling trend will continue.

Graphs 3&4

 

Graph 5 – I’ve been putting this graph in every day for a while, focussing on the green line and how quickly ITU occupancy is falling. Out of the 59 in ITU, there are 29 who have been in ITU for more than 28 days. This is a grim statistic indeed. However, today I’d like to draw your attention to the size of this third wave in deaths. It is worse than the first wave, quite significantly so. I am intending, with some help, to do some analysis on this, because this is not what would be expected of a respiratory virus epidemic. This third wave has been horrendous.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – ITU occupancy by region. Glasgow is looking quite strange still – it seems unexpected for its occupancy to level off like this when everywhere else it is trending so distinctly down. Ayrshire and Arran has come off my chart because I remove when the number of patients goes below 5 and Scot Gov doesn’t report. ITU occupancy is now very low.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these. How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions?? Some of the numbers here are very low. See note below for an explanation about Glasgow.

Graph 7

 

Graphs 8&9 – Vaccinations as seen below. First and second doses are rising and falling in synchronisation, it seems. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this.

Graphs 8&9

 

Note: (extracted directly from Government spreadsheet):

From 08/03/2021, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC) include patients with positive Lighthouse and Point of Care tests, as they now have an integrated link with the Lighthouse Laboratory.  Previously, NHS GGC COVID-19 patients were confirmed from hospital laboratory tests. This has resulted in an increase in the number of recently confirmed COVID-19 hospital inpatients in the Board, and also explains the increase at Scotland level. 

 

I don’t understand what this note means… unless I do understand it, in which case, I’m completely amazed they have come out and said it.

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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