Data for 6th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

 

Data 6th March 2021:

555 new +ve tests (⇧11% since yesterday)

22,992 new tests reporting (⇧20%)

(- of these 12383 were NHS (54% of the tests returned) and 10609 were community (46%).)

This is 2.4% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues!

 

In total including repeat tests 684 were +ve – this is a 3.0% rate (⇩0.1%.)

 

4296 newly tested individuals reported (⇧5.6%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 32, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 4, Fife 48, Forth Valley 49, Grampian 26, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 166, Highland 9, Lanarkshire 91, Lothian 72, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 46, Western Isles 8

 

12 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧1)

63 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

639 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.1%). And we are now a very long way below the delayed discharges number.

As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,743,869 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 114,081 their second.

This means that since yesterday 26,197 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 5,884 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are falling again in infections – this is AMAZING news. But it also looks quite strange. These three linear phases since New Year are strongly indicative that there has been a change in testing protocol.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive is just plummeting. How low can it go? And how low do we need it to go before we get any loosening of restrictions? You can see the last two peaks have been much much lower than the previous ones.. I think this is further evidence there has been some change in testing.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals seem to be levelling off, or falling. I think this is quite a good measure of where we are in the pandemic and this is why I’m watching it. They will have to fall eventually. We have now tested 1.7million Scots at least one time to find 200k positives and 1.5million negatives. This is just an incredible use of resources – and arguably of extremely limited value, frankly, when false results have largely been uncorrected. I have also always found the fluctuations day to day really strange, but you can see that in recent weeks, the variation has become much smaller. I don’t really understand why that would be.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast – and linearly! At this rate of decline, there will be no covid patients in hospital by 23rd March. I am not making a serious prediction here, but this fall in hospital patient numbers has been linear more or less since it began. It’s not natural and I don’t understand it. ITU occupancy is also falling fast. Positive tests returned are falling again and deaths are falling slowly but surely. It looks like we can expect to see really low numbers this week and I think we should from then on be in to our low-coronavirus season and allowed to expect some peace from the incessant covid news.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Saturday since week 38 last year.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community tests. Now standard to have the NHS labs doing more tests than the Lighthouse labs.

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – What these graphs show is that where there used to be some predictive value to tests and deaths expected (with two lags explored here), this relationship has been lost recently. I think this is an indication that once again, far too much testing is being done and therefore all we are generating now is a series of numbers of covid ‘positive’ patients in hospitals (still where the vast majority of covid patients die) which offers no value whatsoever in terms of identifying the most gravely ill. It may be useful for identifying patients who need isolated in hospital, but there is little benefit in reporting these numbers to the public or using them as a measure of what restrictions are required to ensure the Scottish people’s covid safety.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – This graph is showing that although we are in decline in deaths by date of occurrence, rather than by date of registration as above, there has been recently a period of increased covid mortality recently. This began on 20th January + 16 days, which is the 5th February. We have deaths by date of occurrence up to 21st February.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region. Glasgow is looking a little strange but all other regions are continuing to trend down – to really very low numbers indeed. Things are pretty static today.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these. How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions?? Some of the numbers here are very low. I want to know how NHS Tayside counts covid patients because they have 12, apparently, across their entire region, which is an awful lot lower than other similar sized regions.

Graph 12

 

Graphs 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. First and second doses are rising and falling in synchronisation, it seems. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this.

Graphs 14&15

 

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Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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