Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
There is some really really good news today!!! Amazing stuff.
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 5th March 2021:
498 new +ve tests (⇩0.4% since yesterday)
19132 new tests reporting (⇩23%)
(- of these 12304 were NHS (64% of the tests returned) and 6828 were community (36%).)
This is 2.6% positive percentage rate (⇧0.6%) – I’m still amazed by how low this is!
In total including repeat tests 584 were +ve – this is a 3.1% rate (⇧0.6%.)
4070 newly tested individuals reported (⇧0.4%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 24, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 4, Fife 11, Forth Valley 45, Grampian 20, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 157, Highland 13, Lanarkshire 107, Lothian 73, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 37, Western Isles 3
11 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩13)
64 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4)
666 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩8.3%). And we are now a very long way below the delayed discharges number.
As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).
As of today, 1,717,672 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 108,197 their second.
This means that since yesterday 29,064 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 8,139 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.
Graph 1 – We are falling again in infections – this is AMAZING news. But it also looks quite strange and we have entered a second distinct fall in cases after that sudden flattening. We had a linear decline after New Year, a linear flattening, and now entering another decline (that looks very linear so far). This is all quite unnatural looking – strongly indicative that there has been a change in testing protocol.
Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive is just plummeting. How low can it go? And how low do we need it to go before we get any loosening of restrictions?
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals seem to be levelling off, or falling. I think this is quite a good measure of where we are in the pandemic and this is why I’m watching it. They will have to fall eventually. We have now tested 1.7million Scots at least one time to find 200k positives and 1.5million negatives. This is just an incredible use of resources – and arguably of extremely limited value when false results have largely been uncorrected.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall really fast, and is now very significantly indeed below the number of delayed discharges. This is important because we believe there is a large number of delayed discharges that are covid positive. Delayed discharges are the people in hospital who have no clinical reason to be there. ITU occupancy is falling really quickly, deaths reported are trending down and have been trending down slowly and consistently – as expected as a minimum after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups. Positive tests are on another clear and distinct (and strange looking) downwards trend.
Graph 5 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Friday since week 38 last year.
Graph 6 – NHS vs Community tests.
Graph 7- ITU occupancy still falling fast nationwide.
Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region. Glasgow is looking a little strange but all other regions are continuing to trend down – to really very low numbers indeed.
Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these. How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions?? Some of the numbers here are very low.
Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below. First and second doses are rising and falling in synchronisation, it seems. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this.
Graph 12 – Prevalence has dropped a long long way again with the latest update from ONS…. This is great news, but not even a little bit surprising. Your fellow Scot is clearly very little risk to you, covid-wise – not sure how low we need that risk to go to be allowed to live normally?
This is what the infected population looks like as a pie chart – starting to get so small that this won’t work…
The featured image at the top is a depiction of the infected people (orange) extrapolated to a group of 1000 people. By next week’s update, this depiction won’t work either, because the dots will just get too small to be visible!
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪