Data for 4th March 2021

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 Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

(Featured image is hospital occupancy for regions of Scotland.)

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 4th March 2021:

500 new +ve tests (⇩7.7% since yesterday)

24723 new tests reporting (⇧1.4%)

(- of these 18586 were NHS (75% of the tests returned) and 6137 were community (25%).)

This is 2.0% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%) – I’m still amazed by how low this is!

 

In total including repeat tests 607were +ve – this is a 2.5% rate (⇧0.1%.)

 

4054 newly tested individuals reported (⇩12%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 32, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 3, Fife 22, Forth Valley 58, Grampian 23, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 146, Highland 22, Lanarkshire 87, Lothian 71, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 30, Western Isles 2

 

24 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩11)

68 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

726 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.2%). And we are now a very long way below the delayed discharges number.

As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,688,608 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 100,058 their second.

This means that since yesterday 26,729 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 7,508 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 225 people had the coronavirus in the week 13th to 19th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 180 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are falling again in infections – this is AMAZING news. But it also looks quite strange and like we are entering a second distinct fall in cases. We had a linear decline after New Year, a linear flattening, and now entering another decline (that looks very linear so far).

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive is just plummeting. How low can it go? And how low do we need it to go before we get any loosening of restrictions?

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals seem to be levelling off, overall. I do think that they will trend down because we come to a point where we run out of people who have not yet been tested and there will be a section of the population unlikely ever to be tested. I think this is quite a good measure of where we are in the pandemic and this is why I’m watching it.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall really fast, and is now very significantly indeed below the number of delayed discharges. This is significant because we believe there is a large number of delayed discharges that are covid positive. Delayed discharges are the people in hospital who have no clinical reason to be there. ITU occupancy is falling really quickly too. Deaths reported are trending down and have been trending down slowly and consistently – as expected as a minimum after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups. Positive tests are on another clear and distinct downwards trend.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Thursday since week 38 last year.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community tests. Biggest ever number of NHS tests again, by quite a long way. I think this is really significant now to look at the number of covid tests the NHS is running – to find really quite a small number of positives. What did the labs do before? Have they increased testing capacity for all sorts of tests in the NHS? Has there been an announcement I have missed about the arrangements the Government has made with the Lighthouse Labs?

Graph 6

 

Graph 7- ITU occupancy still falling fast nationwide.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region. Glasgow is looking a little strange but all other regions are continuing to trend down.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these. How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions?? I’d like to draw this website’s visitors’ attention to the fact that in the whole of NHS Tayside there are only 9 patients in hospital with covid. This seems really extremely remarkable, which is why I’m remarking upon it!

Graph 9

 

I’ve attached a wee table to show you the covid hospital patients by region – and look that we have dropped by over 100 patients in just the last 5 days!

Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below. First and second doses are rising and falling in synchronisation, it seems. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this.

Graphs 10&11

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

 

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