Data for 3rd March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 3rd March 2021:

543 new +ve tests (⇧0.2% since yesterday)

24377 new tests reporting (⇧68%)

(- of these 16702 were NHS (69% of the tests returned) and 7675 were community (31%).)

This is 2.2% positive percentage rate (⇩1.5%) – this is so very low again!

 

In total including repeat tests 636 were +ve – this is a 2.4% rate (⇩1.8%.)

 

4593 newly tested individuals reported (⇧34%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 49, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 2, Fife 23, Forth Valley 70, Grampian 29, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 150, Highland 9, Lanarkshire 102, Lothian 77, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 29, Western Isles 0

 

35 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧2)

69 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩2)

750 admitted or moving through or stuck hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.3%). And we are now very well below the delayed discharges number.

As at 24th February, there were 944 people delayed in hospital (⇩13.5% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,661,879 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 92,550 their second.

This means that since yesterday 27,518 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 8,105 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 225 people had the coronavirus in the week 13th to 19th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 180 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are falling again in infections – this is AMAZING news. But it also looks quite strange and like we are entering a second distinct fall in cases. And I’m surprised by how good it looks!

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive rate is just plummeting.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals falling again.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall really fast, and is below the number of delayed discharges. ITU occupancy is falling really quickly too. Deaths reported are trending down and have been trending down slowly and consistently – as expected as a minimum after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups. Positive tests are on another clear and distinct downwards trend.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – This graph is quite interesting in that it shows that positive tests and ITU occupancy have recently become very closely correlated, which implies a shorter lag from positive test to ITU. And also that hospital covid deaths follow hospital occupancy, which shows that there is a fairly consistent mortality rate in covid hospital patients.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Wednesday I’ve seen since I started tracking this in September.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – NHS vs Community tests. Biggest ever number of NHS tests.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8&9 – I still find this double peak in death really strange, with either the 18- or the 7-day lag applied. It is a registration artefact to an extent, because we know the deaths by date of occurrence look a bit different – but they both show increased mortality. The fall in deaths is now in parallel with positive tests as it should be, notwithstanding a couple of ‘bumpy’ bits… I think we may therefore see them flattening a little for a while now or very soon, as we saw with positive tests. I have been expecting that today – let’s see what happens. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic again.

Graphs 8&9

 

Graph 10 – This recent increased ITU occupancy not predicted by the positive tests is also clear on this graph, and it will be interesting to see if it flattens too alongside positive tests over the next few days.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy still falling fast nationwide.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – ITU occupancy by region – Glasgow still looking a little strange with this sudden upturn. There was a clear trend of falling occupancy, which has suddenly halted and a clear flattening is now observable. Highland has come off the graph because occupancy has gone below 5.

Graph 12

 

Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these. How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions??

Graph 13

 

Graphs 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. Both first and second doses recovered a little.

Graphs 14&15

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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