Data for 2nd March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

Spring is still springing! 🌱🌱🌱 And the news is ALL pretty good, except in Glasgow ITUs.

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 2nd March 2021:

542 new +ve tests (⇧40% since yesterday)

14537 new tests reporting (⇧46%)

(- of these 9193 were NHS (63% of the tests returned) and 5344 were community (37%).)

This is 3.7% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%) – this is still very low again!

 

In total including repeat tests 645 were +ve – this is a 4.4% rate (⇩0.1%.)

 

3422 newly tested individuals reported (⇧22%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 24, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 3, Fife 15, Forth Valley 74, Grampian 12, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 158, Highland 18, Lanarkshire 101, Lothian 104, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 29, Western Isles 1

 

33 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧33)

71 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change since yesterday)

784 admitted or moving through or stuck hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.9%). And we are now very well below the delayed discharges number.

As at 24th February, there were 944 people delayed in hospital (⇩13.5% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,634,361 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 84,445 their second.

This means that since yesterday 22,783 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 5,580 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 225 people had the coronavirus in the week 13th to 19th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 180 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are falling again in infections – this is AMAZING news. And I’m surprised by how good it is, I don’t mind saying.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive is going so very low!

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals have been increasing but look to be falling again.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall really fast, and is below the number of delayed discharges. ITU occupancy is falling really quickly too. Deaths reported are trending down and have been trending down slowly and consistently – as expected after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups. Positive tests are on another clear and distinct downwards trend.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Tuesday since Week 39.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community tests.

Graph 6

Graph 7&8 – I still find this double peak in death really strange, with either the 18- or the 7-day lag applied. It is a registration artefact to an extent, because we know the deaths by date of occurrence look a bit different – but they both show increased mortality. The fall in deaths is now in parallel with positive tests as it should be, notwithstanding a couple of ‘bumpy’ bits… I think we may therefore see them flattening a little for a while now or very soon, as we saw with positive tests. I was expecting that today – let’s see what happens. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic again.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – This recent increased ITU occupancy not predicted by the positive tests is also clear on this graph, and it will be interesting to see if it flattens too alongside positive tests over the next few days.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy still falling fast nationwide.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – I notice that there is something strange going on in Glasgow. There was a clear trend of falling occupancy, which has suddenly halted and a clear flattening is now observable.

Graph 11

 

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these now. This is still astonishing! How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions?? 

Graph 12

 

Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. Both first and second doses recovered a little.

Graphs 13&14

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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