Data for 26th to 29th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

I’ve done the last 4 days – astonishingly little going on. Sorry there is so much text – pretty dull. But just to show where the numbers are from.

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data:

26th March

543 new +ve tests (⇩23% since day before)

24886 new tests reporting (22%) 

(- of these 15418 were NHS (62% of the tests returned) and 9468 were community (38%).)

This is 2.2% positive percentage rate (no change) – this is very low.

In total including repeat tests 607 were +ve – this is a 2.4% rate (no change).

 

27th March

563 new +ve tests (⇧3.7% since day before)

25519 new tests reporting (⇧2.5%) 

(- of these 12420 were NHS (49% of the tests returned) and 13099 were community (51%).)

This is 2.2% positive percentage rate (no change) – this is very low.

In total including repeat tests 621 were +ve – this is a 2.4% rate (no change).

 

28th March

422 new +ve tests (⇩25% since day before)

17627 new tests reporting (⇩31%) 

(- of these 6478 were NHS (37% of the tests returned) and 11149 were community (63%).)

This is 2.4% positive percentage rate (⇧0.2%) – this is very low.

In total including repeat tests 459 were +ve – this is a 2.6% rate (⇧0.2%).

 

29th March

352 new +ve tests (⇩17% since day before)

12456 new tests reporting (⇩29%) 

(- of these 5120 were NHS (41% of the tests returned) and 7336 were community (59%).)

This is 2.8% positive percentage rate (⇧0.4%) – this is very low.

In total including repeat tests 395 were +ve – this is a 3.2% rate (⇧0.6%).

 

26th March: 5333 newly tested individuals reported (⇩18%)

27th March: 4855 newly tested individuals reported (⇩9%)

28th March:4242 newly tested individuals reported (⇩13%)

29th March: 3182 newly tested individuals reported (⇩25%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from previous 24 hours:

26th March

Ayrshire and Arran 32, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 1, Fife 27, Forth Valley 29, Grampian 43, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 169, Highland 2, Lanarkshire 109, Lothian 94, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 33, Western Isles 0

27th March

Ayrshire and Arran 28, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 4, Fife 29, Forth Valley 49, Grampian 45, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 157, Highland 4, Lanarkshire 100, Lothian 119, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 25, Western Isles 0

 

28th March

Ayrshire and Arran 35, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 0, Fife 20, Forth Valley 41, Grampian 15, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 107, Highland 1, Lanarkshire 81, Lothian 81, Orkney 0, Shetland 1, Tayside 39, Western Isles 0

 

29th March

Ayrshire and Arran 22, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 0, Fife 21, Forth Valley 41, Grampian 29, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 101, Highland 2, Lanarkshire 68, Lothian 44, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 21, Western Isles 0

 

26th March

6 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩4)

26* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩6) 

*There are 14 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

296 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.5%). This is 29% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

27th March

6 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (no change)

26* people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change) 

*There are 16 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

283 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩2.4%). This is 28% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

28th March

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩6)

22* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4) 

*There are 16 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

264 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩6.7%). This is 26% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

29th March

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (no change)

22* people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change) 

*There are 15 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

259 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.9%). This is 25% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital. Extraordinary!

 

As of 24th March, there are 1022 patients delayed in hospital.

 

Vaccinations

26th March

As of this day, 2,322,832 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 279,814 their second. This means that the day before 37,121 people received their first dose, and 16,578 their second.

 

27th March

As of this day, 2,358,807 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 294,714 their second. This means that the day before 35,975 people received their first dose, and 14,900 their second.

 

28th March

As of this day, 2,385,709 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 312,320 their second. This means that the day before 26,902 people received their first dose, and 17,606 their second.

 

29th March

As of today, 2,409,826 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 326,263 their second. This means that yesterday 24,117 people received their first dose, and 13,943 their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 240 people had the coronavirus in the week 14th to 20th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 275 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised – and confused – that it has risen, given the positivity rate in testing has been falling. There is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill enough to need hospital treatment. There is no indication we need to be concerned at all.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – ‘Cases’ flat or even falling slightly?

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat – or falling? And very far below epidemic levels.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are rising slightly. This is coupled with flat positivity, so there is no indication that there is any cause for concern in terms of symptomatic infections in the community.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at one quarter of the number of delayed discharges… and falling. Deaths are falling. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have patients in ITU long-term, but this number is falling, thankfully, and overall ITU population with covid is falling too. This is great news and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – Positivity by day of the week. You can see that in Week 12, there was further tightening in positivity throughout the week, but not a general reduction. This is yet more evidence we are on a floor here. I actually don’t believe we can get much lower than this – unless we change our testing protocol: ie stop testing asymptomatics, and test in a more targeted way, and also re-test positives.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – ITU occupancy continues to fall fast.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – ITU occupancy by region. There is now only one region with more than 4 covid patients in ITU, and that is Lothian. Isn’t that unbelievable?? Still three months till you are allowed to meet 2 friends from different households – for this.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there.

Graph 9

 

Graphs 10&11 – Vaccinations as seen below. They are up and down like a fine day – no obvious correlation whatsoever with reduction in ‘cases’ following vaccination – more evidence we are on the floor!

Graphs 10&11

 

Graph 12 – ONS Prevalence survey – the prevalence is going up, according to ONS – but remember this goes back a week and is not connected to any rise in hospitalisations or serious illness, so this is either good news or of no significance whatsoever. We are at 0.4%. That means 4 in 1000 people are ‘infected’. There is a representation of this in the title image.

Graph 12

 

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Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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