Data for 23rd to 25th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

I have been struggling to find the time to do these updates as regularly as I had before – and there really is little news ever now…. we are truly at the very end stages of anything that could be called a crisis – by any objective measure. Every day the news is: nothing is happening here! So I am going to reduce the frequency of these updates – I have so many things to do and this daily update isn’t necessarily the best use of my time. So today I have amalgamated the last three days and updated the graphs for all three days at one time.

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Please note that 57 historical cases from February and March were included in the data for 24th March. This means that the percentages will actually be higher than they were in truth – since the graphs show 7-day averages, I still think this approach is valuable.

 

Data:

23rd March

495 new +ve tests (⇧38% since day before)

15217 new tests reporting (⇧41%) 

(- of these 8374 were NHS (55% of the tests returned) and 6843 were community (45%).)

This is 3.3% positive percentage rate (no change) – this is still really low.

In total including repeat tests 544 were +ve – this is a 3.6% rate (⇧0.1%).

 

24th March

632 new +ve tests (⇧28% since day before)

25602 new tests reporting (⇧68%) 

(- of these 15165 were NHS (59% of the tests returned) and 10437 were community (41%).)

This is 2.5% positive percentage rate (⇩0.8%) – this is still really low.

In total including repeat tests 701 were +ve – this is a 2.7% rate (⇩0.9%).

 

25th March

701 new +ve tests (⇧11% since day before)

31946 new tests reporting (⇧25%) – this is the highest number of tests ever conducted/reported in one day

(- of these 20015 were NHS (63% of the tests returned) and 11931 were community (37%).)

This is 2.2% positive percentage rate (⇩0.3%) – this is very low indeed.

In total including repeat tests 761 were +ve – this is a 2.4% rate (⇩0.3%).

 

23rd March

3997 newly tested individuals reported (⇧45%)

 

24th March

5748 newly tested individuals reported (⇧44%)

 

25th March

6536 newly tested individuals reported (⇧14%)

 

23rd March

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 30, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 10, Fife 31, Forth Valley 20, Grampian 28, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 143, Highland 6, Lanarkshire 102, Lothian 107, Orkney 0, Shetland 5, Tayside 13, Western Isles 0

 

24th March

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 23, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 9, Fife 34, Forth Valley 59, Grampian 54, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 187, Highland 4, Lanarkshire 108, Lothian 165, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 49, Western Isles 0

 

25th March

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 38, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 4, Fife 26, Forth Valley 31, Grampian 56, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 177, Highland 12, Lanarkshire 141, Lothian -20*, Orkney 0, Shetland 1, Tayside 56, Western Isles 0

*this number reflects the reporting of historical cases and that cases were reported in duplicate so this is a correction

 

23rd March

7 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧7)

28* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩5) 

*There are 23 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

341 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.4%). This is 32% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

24th March

3 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩4)

31* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧3) 

*There are 20 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

321 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.9%). This is 31% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

25th March

10 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧7)

32* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧1) 

*There are 18 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days in today’s figure. 

310 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.4%). This is 30% of the delayed discharges and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital.

 

As of 24th March, there are 1022 patients delayed in hospital.

 

Vaccinations

23rd March

As of today, 2,214,672 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 235,671 their second. This means that yesterday 32,272 people received their first dose, and 10,575 their second.

24th March

As of today, 2,249,612 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 249,252 their second. This means that yesterday 34,940 people received their first dose, and 13,581 their second.

25th March

As of today, 2,285,711 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 263,236 their second. This means that yesterday 36,099 people received their first dose, and 13,984 their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 275 people had the coronavirus in the week 7th to 13th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 320 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised that it has risen – as I said, I thought this prevalence would drop, given the vaccinations and the season turning! But also, there is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill enough to need hospital treatment. There is no indication we need to be concerned at all.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – I think positive cases are probably going to rest at this level now, notwithstanding huge rises in testing, obviously.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are rising slightly. This is coupled with flat positivity, so there is no indication that there is any cause for concern in terms of symptomatic infections in the community.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at less than one third of the number of delayed discharges… and falling. Deaths are falling or flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have patients in ITU long-term, which is an indication that there are only a very few new patients coming through needing ITU care now. The number of long-term covid patients in ITU is falling – great news, obviously.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – NHS vs Community Lab tests. Community testing has increased a little over the last couple of weeks – and with no effect really on the number of positives coming back – we are just using so many resources testing – and we are finding nothing and there is really no sign of any clinical emergency. NHS tests yesterday were the highest number there has ever been – by quite some margin. Why is this?

Graph 6

 

Graph 7&8 – The loss in correlation between positive tests and deaths and positive tests and hospital occupancy continues – this is what you should expect when testing becomes very untargeted.

Graphs 7&8

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region. Forth Valley has 5 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 8. All other regions have fewer than 5 patients. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. Dumfries & Galloway and Tayside have fallen off the graph because they have gone below five patients there. 

Graph 10

 

Graphs 11&12 – Vaccinations as seen below.

Graphs 11&12

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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