Data for 21st March 2021

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Hello Friends! ❤🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 21st March 2021:

532 new +ve tests (⇧9.0% since yesterday)

21010 new tests reporting (⇧5.3%)

(- of these 8801 were NHS (42% of the tests returned) and 12209 were community (58%).)

This is 2.5% positive percentage rate (⇧0.1%) – this is still really low

 

In total including repeat tests 600 were +ve – this is a 2.8% rate (⇧0.1%).

 

4902 newly tested individuals reported (⇧24%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 29, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 5, Fife 26, Forth Valley 32, Grampian 25, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 141, Highland 4, Lanarkshire 102, Lothian 104, Orkney 1, Shetland 0, Tayside 63, Western Isles 0

 

These numbers are mostly strikingly similar to yesterday’s and day before’s numbers. This is more evidence we are on a floor here.

 

0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve 

31* people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change) 

*There are 24 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days. 

344 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩6.3%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! This is 33% of the delayed discharges number and there are certainly a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital – this means they are not needing clinical treatment but can’t leave hospital due to a positive test.

As at 17th March, there were 1055 people delayed in hospital (⇧3.4% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 2,144,940 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 220,188 their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 275 people had the coronavirus in the week 7th to 13th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 320 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised that it has risen – as I said, I thought this prevalence would drop, given the vaccinations and the season turning! But also, there is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill enough to need hospital treatment. There is no indication we need to be concerned at all.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – I think positive cases are probably going to rest at this level now.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time and seeking out a test.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is now at one third of the number of delayed discharges… and falling very fast indeed. Deaths are falling or flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have patients in ITU long-term, which is an indication that there are only a very few new patients coming through needing ITU care now.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6 – You can see here that the percentage positives by day have bunched up in the last week. This is yet more evidence that we are on a new floor. I don’t think we can expect much better than this, unless there is a big change in testing strategy.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – NHS vs Community Lab tests. Community testing has increased a little over the last couple of weeks – and with no effect really on the number of positives coming back – we are just using so many resources testing – and we are finding nothing and there is really no sign of any clinical emergency.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – ITU Occupancy is falling fast.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region. Forth Valley has 5 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 9. All other regions have fewer than 5 patients. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this. This is, truly, an incredible situation.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. These traces are just plummeting, except where they are really low and flat, at much lower levels than at the peak of the second wave. This crisis is well and truly over. 

Graph 10

 

Graphs 11&12 – Vaccinations as seen below. Yesterday’s entries have been modified as there had been a delay in reporting. You will see that positive cases have NOT started falling since the second doses properly got going. I am not suggesting there is causation here… just that this notion that positives will necessarily fall is a mistake. We are getting on for half the population having received their first dose. Clearly, vaccinations alone are not going to bring ‘cases’ down. (As I’ve been saying!)

Graphs 11&12

 

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Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠  Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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