Data for 20th March 2021

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Hello Friends! ❤🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

These statistics today are truly incredible! It’s just endless good news right now.

Data 20thMarch 2021:

488 new +ve tests (⇩25% since yesterday)

19947 new tests reporting (⇩20%)

(- of these 8690 were NHS (44% of the tests returned) and 11257 were community (56%).)

This is 2.4% positive percentage rate (⇩0.2%) – this is JUST SO LOW

 

In total including repeat tests 540 were +ve – this is a 2.7% rate (⇩0.2%).

 

3962 newly tested individuals reported (⇩17%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 33, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 2, Fife 40, Forth Valley 36, Grampian 31, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 131, Highland 10, Lanarkshire 77, Lothian 85, Orkney 0, Shetland 3, Tayside 40, Western Isles 0

 

These numbers are strikingly similar to yesterday’s numbers. This is more evidence we are on a floor here – my guess would be that nothing much is going to change for the next wee while.

 

8 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (no change)

31* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4) 

*There are 26 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days. 

367 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩7.4%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! This is 35% of the delayed discharges number and I have it on really good authority that there are a lot of covid patients who are delayed in hospital – this means they are not needing clinical treatment but can’t leave hospital due to a positive test.

As at 17th March, there were 1055 people delayed in hospital (⇧3.4% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 2,085,525 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 207,028 their second.

This means that since yesterday 19,065 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 5,593 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 275 people had the coronavirus in the week 7th to 13th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 320 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised that it has risen – as I said, I thought this prevalence would drop, given the vaccinations and the season turning! But also, there is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – I think positive tests are probably going to rest at this level now.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time and seeking out a test.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is approaching one third of the number of delayed discharges now… the distance between the two lines is growing…. and deaths are falling or flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have what few patients there are in ITU now there long-term, which is an indication that there cannot be big numbers of new patients coming through needing ITU care now.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6- NHS vs Community Lab tests. That has actually been quite a big number of community tests reported today, compared to recent weeks but the trend towards much more NHS testing is really clear.

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – Positive tests and deaths and ITU occupancy have lost their correlation, laying bare how little value testing is offering the Scottish people. When correlation is lost between two measures that should have a great deal to do with one another, we have to conclude that the tests are essentially just generating random numbers. This would be a great time to start introducing confirmatory testing and/or scaling it right back – it’s just an enormous use of resources for no benefit whatsoever.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – ITU Occupancy is falling fast.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region. Forth Valley has 5 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 9 and Lothian has re-joined the graph, having 5 patients in ITU again. All other regions have fewer than 5 patients. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this. This is, truly, an incredible situation.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. These traces are just plummeting, except where they are really low and flat, at much lower levels than at the peak of the second wave. This crisis is well and truly over. How this can be the basis of devastating restrictions on our lives is really an urgent question.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. You will see that positive cases have NOT started falling since the second doses properly got going. I am not suggesting there is causation here… just that this notion that positives will necessarily fall is a mistake. We are getting on for half the population having received their first dose. Clearly, vaccinations alone are not going to bring ‘cases’ down. (As I’ve been saying!) What will bring ‘cases’ down is ending obsessive testing.

Graphs 12&13

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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