Spring is here!! 🌱🌱🌱 And yet – we’re still in the same place with the restrictions – life on hold, no let up and the numbers only look astonishingly positive. What is going on?
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 1st March 2021:
386 new +ve tests (⇩33% since yesterday)
9982 new tests reporting (⇩43%)
(- of these 4677 were NHS (47% of the tests returned) and 5305 were community (53%).)
This is 3.9% positive percentage rate (⇧0.7%) – this is still very low again!
In total including repeat tests 453 were +ve – this is a 4.5% rate (⇧0.7%.)
2816 newly tested individuals reported (⇩35%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 30, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 4, Fife 17, Forth Valley 39, Grampian 13, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 123, Highland 14, Lanarkshire 51, Lothian 70, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 20, Western Isles 2
0 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2)
71 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩7)
824 admitted or moving through or stuck hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.6%). And we are now very well below the delayed discharges number.
As at 24th February, there were 944 people delayed in hospital (⇩13.5% from previous week).
As of today, 1,611,578 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 78,865 their second.
This means that since yesterday 17,883 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 2,353 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 225 people had the coronavirus in the week 13th to 19th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 180 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.
Graph 1 – Nice to be back below December levels – I’m encouraged and surprised by how low this trend is going, but I suppose it shouldn’t be a surprise since winter is mostly away now!
Graph 2 – More amazing news! The percentage positive is going very low!
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals have been increasing but look to be flattening off.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy continuing to fall really fast, and is below the number of delayed discharges. We’re well through the level we were at in the peak in October. ITU occupancy is tending to fall really quickly again. Deaths reported are trending down and this is as we would have expected after such a prolonged drop in positive tests and also with the vaccine having been rolled out to the vulnerable groups.
Graph 5 – Percentage positives by day of the week. Lowest Monday since Week 40 last year.
Graph 6 – NHS vs Community tests.
Graph 7&8 – I still find this double peak in death really strange, with either the 18- or the 7-day lag applied. It is a registration artefact to an extent, because we know the deaths by date of occurrence look a bit different – but they both show increased mortality. The fall in deaths is now in parallel with positive tests as it should be, notwithstanding a couple of ‘bumpy’ bits… I think we may therefore see them flattening a little for a while now or very soon, as we saw with positive tests.
Graph 9 – This recent increased ITU occupancy not predicted by the positive tests is also clear on this graph, and it will be interesting to see if it flattens too alongside positive tests over the next few days.
Graph 10 – ITU occupancy still falling fast nationwide.
Graph 11 – ITU occupancy by region – Ayrshire and Arran have fallen a lot and now at the boundary where they will go off the chart altogether
Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy by region – still extraordinarily fast rates of decline for all of these now. This is still astonishing! How few patients are we looking to have in hospital before lifting restrictions??
Graphs 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. Both first and second doses falling.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪