Data for 19th March 2021

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Hello Friends! ❤🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 19th March 2021:

655 new +ve tests (⇧5.0% since yesterday) – this is a strikingly similar number to yesterday again today.

25080 new tests reporting (⇩4.6%)

(- of these 17013 were NHS (68% of the tests returned) and 8067 were community (32%). Same split as yesterday)

This is 2.6% positive percentage rate (⇧0.2%) – this is JUST SO LOW

 

In total including repeat tests 730 were +ve – this is a 2.9% rate (⇧0.2%).

 

4801 newly tested individuals reported (⇩6.9%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 51, Borders 1, Dumfries and Galloway 1, Fife 40, Forth Valley 33, Grampian 35, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 162, Highland 13, Lanarkshire 134, Lothian 138, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 47, Western Isles 0

 

These numbers are all, without exception, strikingly similar to yesterday’s numbers. This is more evidence we are on a floor here – my guess would be that nothing much is going to change for the next wee while.

 

8 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧1)

35* people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩3) 

*There are 24 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days. 

397 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩2.0%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! This is 38% of the delayed discharges number.

As at 17th March, there were 1055 people delayed in hospital (⇧3.4% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 2,066,460 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 201,435 their second.

This means that since yesterday 43,458 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 9,335 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 275 people had the coronavirus in the week 7th to 13th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 320 the previous week. This is still a very low rate, but I am surprised that it has risen – as I said, I thought this prevalence would drop, given the vaccinations and the season turning! But also, there is good news here – or an indication that the prevalence estimate may not be terribly reliable or of any significance – because as prevalence was rising, there were only falls in all markers of infections actually making people ill.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – I think positive cases are probably going to rest at this level now.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time and seeking out a test.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is approaching one third of the number of delayed discharges now… the distance between the two lines is growing…. and deaths are falling or flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have patients in ITU long-term, which is an indication that there cannot be big numbers of new patients coming through needing ITU care now.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6- NHS vs Community Lab tests. You can see that the NHS is becoming increasingly focussed on testing, and the Lighthouse labs decreasingly focussed. This is a clear indication of where the covid is. This is the fourth highest day ever for NHS tests, all to find 655 positives when the number of people in hospital is plummeting and there are hardly any new covid patients in ITU across the country, and when we know a significant proportion of positive tests are false. What is all this testing for?

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – Positive tests and deaths and ITU occupancy have lost their correlation, laying bare how little value testing is offering the Scottish people. When correlation is lost between two measures that should have a great deal to do with one another, we have to conclude that the tests are essentially just generating random numbers. This would be a great time to start introducing confirmatory testing and/or scaling it right back – it’s just an enormous use of resources for no benefit whatsoever.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – ITU Occupancy is falling fast.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region. Forth Valley has 6 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 10. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this. This is, truly, an incredible situation.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. These traces are just plummeting, at much lower levels than at the peak of the second wave. This crisis is well and truly over. How this can be the basis of devastating restrictions on our lives is really an urgent question.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. A busier day again for first doses! You will see that positive cases have NOT started falling since the second doses properly got going. I am not suggesting there is causation here… just that this notion that positives will necessarily fall is a mistake. We are getting on for half the population having received their first dose. Clearly, vaccinations alone are not going to bring ‘cases’ down. (As I’ve been saying!) What will bring ‘cases’ down is ending obsessive testing.

Graphs 12&13

 

Graph 14 – ONS Prevalence has risen slightly again in the last week updated – as the reader can see this did not correlate with any rise in hospitalisations – in fact, quite the opposite.

Graph 14

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Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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