Data for 18th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 18th March 2021:

624 new +ve tests (⇩0.16% since yesterday) – this is a strikingly similar number to yesterday.

26282 new tests reporting (⇧12%)

(- of these 17785 were NHS (68% of the tests returned) and 8497 were community (32%).)

This is 2.4% positive percentage rate (⇩0.3%) – this is JUST SO LOW

 

In total including repeat tests 700 were +ve – this is a 2.7% rate (⇩0.3%). This is also strikingly similar to yesterday’s reported number of positives, which was 702.

 

5156 newly tested individuals reported (⇧4.2%)

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 45, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 1, Fife 45, Forth Valley 35, Grampian 31, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 168, Highland 12, Lanarkshire 92, Lothian 134, Orkney 0, Shetland 2, Tayside 57, Western Isles 0

 

7 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩5)

38* people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change) 

*There are 26 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days. This is quite telling. Yesterday’s number was 22. So this means that there is truly a sizeable cohort of people that have been in ITU a very long time indeed. These 4 people who entered the >28 days group obviously went in to ITU on 18th February and have remained there since.

405 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.0%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! Now at 38%.

As at 17th March, there were 1055 people delayed in hospital (⇧3.4% from previous week). This is getting truly ridiculous now. I honestly think that a very large proportion of our covid patients must be delayed discharges, i.e. not ill with covid.

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 2,023,002 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 192,100 their second.

This means that since yesterday 41,184 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 10,221 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 320 people had the coronavirus in the week 28th February to 6th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 335 the previous week. This is still a very low rate! That really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – I think positive cases are probably going to rest at this level now.

Graph 1

 

Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.

Graph 2

 

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time and seeking out a test.

Graph 3

 

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is well below half the number of delayed discharges now… the distance between the two lines is growing…. and deaths are falling or flat. There is really very little going on in our hospitals, covid-wise.

Graph 4

 

Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all. We have patients in ITU long-term, which is an indication that there cannot be big numbers of new patients coming through needing ITU care.

Graph 5

 

Graph 6- NHS vs Community Lab tests. You can see that the NHS is becoming increasingly focussed on testing, and the Lighthouse labs decreasingly focussed. This is a clear indication of where the covid is. This is the third highest day ever for NHS tests, all to find 624 positives when the number of people in hospital is plummeting and there are hardly any new covid patients in ITU across the country, and when we know a significant proportion of positive tests are false. What is all this testing for?

Graph 6

 

Graphs 7&8 – Positive tests and deaths and ITU occupancy have lost their correlation, laying bare how little value testing is offering the Scottish people. When correlation is lost between two measures that should have a great deal to do with one another, we have to conclude that the tests are essentially just generating random numbers. This would be a great time to start introducing confirmatory testing.

Graphs 7&8

 

Graph 9 – ITU Occupancy is falling fast.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region. Forth Valley has 7 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 12. All other regions have fewer than 5 patients. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this. This is, truly, an incredible situation.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. These traces are just plummeting, at much lower levels than at the peak of the second wave. This crisis is well and truly over. How this can be the basis of devastating restrictions on our lives is really an urgent question.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. A busier day again! You will see that positive cases have NOT started falling since the second doses properly got going. I am not suggesting there is causation here… just that this notion that positives will necessarily fall is a mistake. We are getting on for half the population having received their first dose. Clearly, vaccinations alone are not going to be sufficient to bring ‘cases’ down. (As I’ve been saying!)

Graphs 12&13

 

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Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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