Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 17th March 2021:
625 new +ve tests (⇧4.7% since yesterday)
23451 new tests reporting (⇧36%)
(- of these 14714 were NHS (63% of the tests returned) and 8737 were community (37%).)
This is 2.7% positive percentage rate (⇩0.8%)
In total including repeat tests 702 were +ve – this is a 3.0% rate (⇩0.8%).
4948 newly tested individuals reported (⇧25%)
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 74, Borders 3, Dumfries and Galloway 5, Fife 50, Forth Valley 35, Grampian 22, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 179, Highland 11, Lanarkshire 97, Lothian 105, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 43, Western Isles 1
12 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧5)
38 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4) (there are 22 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days)
422 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.1%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! Now at 41%.
As at 10th March, there were 1020 people delayed in hospital (⇧1.9% from previous week).
As of today, 1,981,818 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 181,879 their second.
This means that since yesterday 38,311 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 10,987 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 320 people had the coronavirus in the week 28th February to 6th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 335 the previous week. This is still a very low rate! That really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down.
Graph 1 – This is all looking stranger and stranger! I don’t know what it’s doing, but the numbers are low. I think they are probably going to remain at this level for a while.
Graph 2 – Positivity is flat.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time and seeking out a test.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy is well below half the number of delayed discharges now… and deaths are falling or flat.
Graph 5 – There are very few new (or not-long-term) patients in ITU at all.
Graph 6- NHS vs Community Lab tests. You can see that the NHS is becoming increasingly focussed on testing, and the Lighthouse labs decreasingly focussed. This is a clear indication of where the covid is.
Graph 7 – If anything the number of tests done daily is in decline, while positives are remaining largely flat. I think we’re on the floor.
Graphs 8&9 – Positive tests and deaths have lost their correlation. This is an indication that we are doing too much testing. But applying either of these lags, we have covid deaths where they should not be. It is a really serious question, how this came about.
Graph 10 – Positive tests to ITU occupancy have also lost their correlation, backing up the conclusion from Graphs 8&9. And also, you see higher than expected ITU occupancy in this graph, which has now switched to lower than expected.
Graph 11 – ITU Occupancy is falling fast.
Graph 12 – ITU occupancy by region. Lothian has fallen off the chart today because it’s gone below 5 patients…… Forth Valley has 6 patients and Greater Glasgow and Clyde has 13. All other regions have fewer than 5 patients. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this. This is, truly, an incredible situation.
Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy at very low levels everywhere. If a region doesn’t feature, it’s because there are fewer than five patients there. These traces are just plummeting, at much lower levels than at the peak of the second wave. This crisis is well and truly over. How this can be the basis of devastating restrictions on our lives is really an urgent question.
Graphs 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. A busier day!
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Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪