Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 16th March 2021:
597 new +ve tests (⇧31% since yesterday)
17208 new tests reporting (⇧53%)
(- of these 10,144 were NHS (59% of the tests returned) and 7,064 were community (41%).)
This is 3.5% positive percentage rate
In total including repeat tests 655 were +ve – this is a 3.8% rate
3954 newly tested individuals reported
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 51, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 0, Fife 48, Forth Valley 37, Grampian 28, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 207, Highland 9, Lanarkshire 98, Lothian 81, Orkney 0, Shetland 5, Tayside 29, Western Isles 0
7 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve
42 people in ITU with recently +ve test (there are 26 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days)
440 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days. We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! Now at 43%.
As at 10th March, there were 1020 people delayed in hospital (⇧1.9% from previous week).
As of today, 1,943,507 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 170,892 their second.
This means that since yesterday 34,516 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 8,947 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 320 people had the coronavirus in the week 28th February to 6th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 335 the previous week. This is still a very low rate! That really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down.
Graph 1 – This is all looking stranger and stranger! I don’t know what it’s doing, but the numbers are low.
Graph 2 – Professor Leitch said that ‘cases’ are rising last week (though it’s really not clear where all these sick people are)….. But of course the absolute number of positives is completely meaningless. The reader can see that the positivity is flat.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are largely flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time. The trace has really settled down in recent weeks too, with much less day to day fluctuation.
Graph 4 – It looks like hospital occupancy and ITU occupancy are correlated now… and the fall in ITU occupancy has slowed as I predicted as it approaches the number of people in ITU long term (green line). In hospital occupancy we are now well below half the delayed discharge number. We have reason to believe there is some significant crossover in ‘covid patients’ and delayed discharges – and this is important for portraying the picture to the reader because if a patient is delayed in hospital with covid, by definition, they are not ill with covid. Deaths are flattening it seems.
Graph 5 – NHS vs Community Lab tests.
Graph 6 – ITU Occupancy is falling at an accelerating rate now – now at the late May 2020 level.
Graph 7 – ITU occupancy by region. Lanarkshire has fallen off the chart because it’s gone below 5 patients……. Lothian has come back on because it’s gone back up to 5. There is no reason for our ITU departments not to be able to cope with this.
Graph 8 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues; occupancy falling or flat and at very low levels everywhere.
Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations as seen below. A busier day yesterday!
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪