Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 12th March 2021:
682 new +ve tests (⇧15% since yesterday)
22,596 new tests reporting (⇩16%)
(- of these 14,692 were NHS (65% of the tests returned) and 7,904 were community (305%).)
This is 3.0% positive percentage rate (⇧0.8%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues.
In total including repeat tests 760 were +ve – this is a 3.4% rate (⇧0.9%.)
4608 newly tested individuals reported (⇩8.5%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 42, Borders 5, Dumfries and Galloway 3, Fife 43, Forth Valley 39, Grampian 43, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 251, Highland 24, Lanarkshire 105, Lothian 93, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 34, Western Isles 0
17 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩5)
38 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4) (there are still 27 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days)
512 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩7.9%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number! Now at 50%.
As at 10th March, there were 1020 people delayed in hospital (⇧1.9% from previous week).
As of today, 1,844,636 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 149,409 their second.
This means that since yesterday 18,836 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 7976 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 320 people had the coronavirus in the week 28th February to 6th March – this is up slightly from 1 in 335 the previous week. This is still a very low rate! That really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down.
Graph 1 – We are flattening again (this is my prediction, despite Jason Leitch saying ‘cases’ are ‘rising’), after this step change down the way There has clearly been another change and a new equilibrium has been reached.
Graph 2 – Professor Leitch says that ‘cases’ are ‘rising’ (though it’s really not clear where all these sick people are)….. But of course the absolute number of positives is completely meaningless. The reader can see that the positivity is trending down or flattening at worst. The misreporting of the data – or the taking them out of context – is becoming truly very tiresome.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are largely flat. This is quite telling that we certainly are not seeing anything like a surge in people suffering SARS-CoV-2 infections for the first time.
Graph 4 – Nature doesn’t do straight lines, and nor do epidemics – but hospital with-covid occupancy falls linearly in Scotland in the spring of 2021. We are now at almost exactly half the delayed discharge number. We have reason to believe there is some crossover in ‘covid patients’ and delayed discharges – and this is significant because if a patient is delayed in hospital with covid, by definition, they are not ill with covid. ITU occupancy is also at an accelerating rate of decline. This is also extraordinary – epidemics don’t decline linearly. There have been some reporting issues, but these only go so far to explain this phenomenon. Deaths are also trending down, linearly. I have added to this graph today yet another series, which is the count of patients who have been in ITU for more than 28 days. There are 27 in today’s data. This is an important point, and further brings home the message that there are not new patients filling up ITU – nothing like it. This is a grim statistic – long stays in ITU are awful for the patient and I’ve spoken to clinicians who have expressed surprise and horror at the idea of so many staying so long in ITU. But you can see that red line and the green line are coming together, and obviously, the red line can’t cross the green line. We are surely going to see a flattening in ITU occupancy, unless this awful count of patients having really extended stays in ITU starts to go down.
Graph 5 – NHS vs Community Lab tests – highest ever number of tests processed by NHS labs – to find really quite a small return on positives. And a very low number of community tests – this tells you quite a lot about where the covid is – and it’s not in the community.
Graphs 6&7 – The story of these graphs is just how pointless testing has become. It is no longer identifying the sickest and/or most likely to die. I think this is further evidence we are more or less on the false positive floor.
Graph 8 – ITU Occupancy is falling at an accelerating rate now – even now below the December minimum.
Graph 9 – ITU occupancy by region. Lothian has fallen off the chart because it’s gone below 5 patients……. Lanarkshire has 5 and Forth Valley has 7.
Graph 10 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues, in that there really isn’t much to see. If ever a crisis were over!
Graphs 11&12 – Vaccinations as seen below. All very sluggish. It’s looking like second doses are catching up to first doses.
Graph 13 – Prevalence up very slightly this week. I think it will drop again over coming weeks, but let’s see.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪