Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 11th March 2021:
591 new +ve tests (⇩14% since yesterday)
26,761 new tests reporting (⇧7.1%)
(- of these 18,711 were NHS (70% of the tests returned) and 8,050 were community (30%).)
This is 2.2% positive percentage rate (⇩0.6%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues.
In total including repeat tests 676 were +ve – this is a 2.5% rate (⇩0.8%.)
5034 newly tested individuals reported (⇩4.2%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 51, Borders 0, Dumfries and Galloway 7, Fife 37, Forth Valley 56, Grampian 41, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 183, Highland 8, Lanarkshire 102, Lothian 73, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 33, Western Isles 0
22 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧2)
42 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩8) (there are still 29 of these patients who have been in ITU for over 28 days)
556 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4.5%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number!
As at 10th March, there were 1020 people delayed in hospital (⇧1.9% from previous week).
As of today, 1,825,800 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 141,433 their second.
This means that since yesterday 16,642 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 8673 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.
Graph 1 – We are flattening again, after this step change down the way? There has clearly been another change and a new equilibrium has been reached. Is this the new Covid Floor?
Graph 2 – Hospital occupancy falling fast and approaching half of the delayed discharge number. ITU occupancy is also falling fast. It looks like we can expect to continue to see much lower numbers in deaths this week
Graph 3 – NHS vs Community Lab tests – highest ever number of tests processed by NHS labs in one day – to find really quite a small return on positives. And a very low number of community tests – this tells you quite a lot about where the covid is – and it’s not in the community.
Graphs 4&5 – We have completely lost predictive value for deaths or ITU Occupancy from the positive tests, and this applies also to deaths by date of occurrence, so it is not a reporting artefact. I feel like we will not see a flattening, as we might have expected from positive returns… this is great news, but it does rather beg the question why we are testing at all.
Graph 6 – ITU Occupancy is falling at an accelerating rate now – this is so strange but great news. Normally the measures of an epidemic would fall at a decelerating rate. There are still 29 of these patients, out of 42 today, who have been in ITU for more than 28 days.
Graph 7 – ITU occupancy by region. While every one of these traces represents a really awful experience for those spending time in ITU, there really isn’t a lot happening covid-wise in any individual ITU department. We have only 2 regions now where there are more than 5 patients in ITU with covid. Forth Valley has 8 patients and Greater Glasgow & Clyde has 14
Graph 8 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues. 556 patients across the country, when we know that many are not actually ill with or being treated for covid is not a significant number, and it’s falling really fast. There is no reason for hospitals not to be able to cope with this. In some regions, the numbers are really very low indeed. Tayside has 5, for example. Regions which do not feature in this graph have fewer than 5 patients.
Graphs 9&10 – Vaccinations as seen below. All very sluggish. If vaccinations are our way out, we’re not going to get there fast at this rate!
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪