Data for 10th March 2021

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Hello Friends! 🌱🌱🌱

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

 

Data 10th March 2021:

691 new +ve tests (⇧48% since yesterday)

24998 new tests reporting (⇧53%)

(- of these 15962 were NHS (64% of the tests returned) and 9036 were community (36%).)

This is 2.8% positive percentage rate (⇩0.1%) – the fantastic news about this very low rate continues.

 

In total including repeat tests 782 were +ve – this is a 3.3% rate (⇧44%.)

 

5256 newly tested individuals reported (⇧48%).

 

Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:

Ayrshire and Arran 83, Borders 2, Dumfries and Galloway 5, Fife 37, Forth Valley 60, Grampian 30, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 232, Highland 15, Lanarkshire 102, Lothian 96, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 28, Western Isles 1

 

20 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧1)

50 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change)

582 admitted or moving through or stuck in hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩5.2%). We are such a long way below the delayed discharges number.

As at 3rd March, there were 1001 people delayed in hospital (⇧6.0% from previous week).

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 1,809,158 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 132,760 their second.

This means that since yesterday 19,781 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 9,074 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

The ONS estimates 1 in 335 people had the coronavirus in the week 21st to 27th February – this is down a very long way from 1 in 225 the previous week. This is absolutely terrific news, obviously! It really shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a winter virus – there is no sense in pretending otherwise. As we go in to spring, numbers will go down and down and down.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – We are flattening again, after this step change down the way? There has clearly been another change and a new equilibrium has been reached. Is this the new Covid Floor?

Graph 1

 

Graphs 2&3 – Hospital occupancy falling fast and approaching half of the delayed discharge number. ITU occupancy is also falling fast. It looks like we can expect to continue to see much lower numbers in deaths this week and I think we should from then on be in to our low-coronavirus season and allowed to expect some peace from the incessant covid news. This is the lowest deaths for a Wednesday we have seen since October. You can also see hospital covid deaths have dropped quite a long way in the last week updated on NRS.

Graphs 2&3

 

Graphs 4&5 – We have completely lost predictive value for deaths from the positive tests, and this applies also to deaths by date of occurrence (Graph 5), so it is not a reporting artefact. I feel like we will not see a flattening, as the tests might predict now, and that is great news, but it does rather beg the question why we are testing at all.

Graphs 4&5

 

Graph 6 – Even by date of occurrence, the tests are doing nothing to predict mortality any longer. This implies very strongly that the tests are not identifying clinically relevant patients, unless there has been a sudden vast improvement in the treatment of covid.

Graph 6

 

Graph 7 – Using the 5-, 7-, or 18-day lag, covid mortality has dropped by around one half since the peak on the 18th February.

Graph 7

 

Graph 8 – Tests are not correlated with ITU occupancy any longer either – again strongly indicating that they are not identifying clinically relevant patients.

Graph 8

 

Graph 9 – I’ve been putting this graph in every day for a while, focussing on the green line and how quickly ITU occupancy is falling. Out of the 50 in ITU, there are 29 who have been in ITU for more than 28 days, so this is more than half the patients. This is a very long stay in ITU indeed.

Graph 9

 

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy by region. While every one of these traces represents a really awful experience for those spending time in ITU, there really isn’t a lot happening covid-wise in any individual ITU department.

Graph 10

 

Graph 11 – Hospital occupancy by region – the story there continues. 582 patients across the country, when we know that many are not actually ill with or being treated for covid is not a significant number, and it’s falling really fast. There is no reason for hospitals not to be able to cope with this.

Graph 11

 

Graphs 12&13 – Vaccinations as seen below. I thought second doses would have been delivered a little faster than this but that was the highest ever number of second doses delivered in a day yesterday.

Graphs 12&13

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love  ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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One Comment

  • Christine
    Thanks for this excellent analysis. Looking at chart 5 you mentioned perhaps earlier that the third wave in deaths was significantly worse than the first. I see in the first wave curve higher absolute number peak spread over a shorter period. For the third wave I see a lower peak death spread over a longer period. Can you clarify from what is not apparent by eyeball, more on that trend and is so significantly different?

    Reply

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