This article first appeared on: https://www.thinkscotland.org/thinkpolitics/articles.html?read_full=14445
AS A BLOSSOMING lockdown sceptic, I developed a big problem in the summer, which has tortured me since – this does not feel like an exaggeration. It must have been the 14th July I had my first False Positive Moment because I remember seeing 3 cases had been reported in Scotland on that particular day. I remembered it was around 5,000 tests had been reported – now I have checked, I see the precise number was 4908.
So on that day there was a positivity rate of 0.06 per cent.
I remember thinking, ‘That’s an astonishingly low false positive rate!’ and the thought almost came at me by surprise. I had an innate knowledge of false positives I had almost forgotten.
I remembered from my Physics and Medical Physics training about how all tests have a false positive rate. They also have a false negative rate. All false results have to be corrected for when looking at a body of results. ‘I wonder how they are correcting for that and whether those poor three people have to be put under self-isolation falsely too?’
I think back to those thoughts now astonished at my own naivety then.
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