Hospital occupancy – A few words and a lot of graphs!

Hello Friends!

***All the following graphs relate to covid patient occupancy only.

As you know if you read the daily graphs posts, I am absolutely perplexed by the hospital occupancy figures – especially the speed at which hospitals are now emptying apparently. It just looks really unnatural. The other thing is that in every single region, occupancy was falling up until or during December, when suddenly the occupancy went up at a really astonishing rate.

Here is Ayrshire and Arran. Falling fast for two weeks when suddenly in the first week in December it started climbing, peaked in the second half of January and then started plummeting. The occupancy here went up to well over two times the occupancy in the first wave – this will be due in large part to more testing of hospital patients, no doubt.

The Borders show very little activity until suddenly in the second week of December, hospital occupancy rose really quickly, peaked in January at a level similar to the first wave, and is now falling very quickly since the fourth week in January.

In Fife, we saw a gradual and then quicker decline at the end of November before a rise starting in earnest in the second week of December, and then an even quicker rise from the fourth week in December. It peaked higher than in the first wave in the third week of January.

Forth Valley looks similar. Trending down nicely through November, started a first phase increase in early December and then rose again in earnest from the fourth week in January, peaking three times as high as in the first wave. Plummeting through the third week in February.

Tayside is astonishing to look at. Occupancy falling through December. Trending down beautifully, until suddenly at New Year, it skyrocketed, peaking almost twice as high as in first wave in mid-January and since then has been plummeting.

In Lothian, trending down throughout November and then rising suddenly from the end of the first week in December. Peaking at same level as in first wave. Not yet falling very fast, but starting this journey?

In Grampian, after a two week period of decline during the middle two weeks of December, until suddenly, it totally turns around and skyrockets, peaks much higher than in first wave and then suddenly starts a precipitous drop.

Same double peak in Glasgow. Clearly falling until in the fourth week of December when there was a sudden change and the occupancy started rising again. Now falling precipitously.

Lanarkshire looks almost exactly the same as Glasgow, but with a bigger peak relative to the first wave. The timing is identical to Glasgow.

Dumfries and Galloway looks very strange too. This recent peak is enormous. The rise started the last week in December.

Make what you will of this – it’s all very strange to me.

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane ? Stay strong ?

Christine x

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  • This is odd. Vaccinations started around Christmas in the highest vulnerable groups. Could this have had a knock on effect? It is very pronounced across all regions…
    Thanks (working on that medal) ???

  • Could it be lots of extra testing and data being late because of the holidays? Or maybe because some group wanted to make us believe that there was a real danger mixing with people


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