For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and some from https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats.
Data 9th February 2021:
822 new +ve tests (⇩11% since yesterday)
13184 new tests reporting (⇩20%)
(- of these 8166 were NHS (62%) and 5018 were community (38%).)
This is 6.2% positive percentage rate (⇧0.6%)
In total including repeat tests 948 were +ve – this is a 7.2% rate (⇧0.6%)
3525 newly tested individuals reported (⇩24%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 64, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 19, Fife 24, Forth Valley 93, Grampian 34, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 277, Highland 32, Lanarkshire 159, Lothian 90, Orkney 0, Shetland 1, Tayside 20, Western Isles 3
58 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧53)
112 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇧4)
1618 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3.3%). As at 3rd February, there were 1097 people delayed in hospital.
As of today, 928122 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 12257 their second.
This means that since yesterday 61299 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 1567 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.
Graph 1 – Positive tests on the green line, representing 60% of October maximum. I expect to hover around here from now on.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down. I still think it will level off at the December level this week.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall really fast – this is fantastic news.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast now too, ITU occupancy has fallen through the level of October peak and is in a steep decline. Deaths are not falling so quickly – more below.
Graph 5 – I’ve added this in because I’m looking at hospital covid deaths really closely. This is where the majority of covid deaths are happening – by quite a long way.
Graph 6 – Community testing is trending so low!
Graph 7 – Still a marked trend of positive test numbers following the number of tests reported – the red line is running parallel to the tops of the blue bars. This is an indication we are reaching endemic level – constant in the population tested, or the false positive rate. Or a combination of the two.
Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death appears to have changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. This hump we have seen in deaths laterally is really troubling me. I cannot imagine a sharp fall in deaths this week, but if we don’t see a significant fall, that really will need to be explained.
The fact is that these deaths are emerging from a very much smaller pool of positive tests, and have been for some time. What has changed?
It is possible the lag hasn’t really changed from 18 days and the first of these graphs is still representative of the situation (although the fit isn’t very good). However, then that would imply there had been a surge in deaths beginning on 18th December +18 days (5th January) and peaking at around 27th December +18days (14th January) which was not particularly linked to positive tests (i.e. covid has become more deadly during this period).
The other possibility is that deaths in either of these possible situations have been labelled with covid without a test.
I hope what I am trying to explain is clear. I’m going to try (in between homeschool lessons) to do something with deaths by date of occurrence to see what (if any) difference that makes.
Graph 10 – Positive tests continue to be a really good indicator for ITU occupancy with a 16 day lag.
Graph 11 – ITU occupancy falling fast nationwide.
Graph 12 – ITU occupancy by region.
Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy by region.
Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Of course, we should continue to see new positives fall as the vaccine is rolled out.
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Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪