Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 8th February 2021:
928 new +ve tests (⇧59% since yesterday)
16583 new tests reporting (⇧75%)
(- of these 8841 were NHS (53%) and 7742 were community (47%).)
This is 5.6% positive percentage rate (⇩0.6%)
In total including repeat tests 1091 were +ve – this is a 6.6% rate (⇩0.3%)
4647 newly tested individuals reported (⇧55%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 83, Borders 4, Dumfries and Galloway 27, Fife 22, Forth Valley 63, Grampian 51, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 283, Highland 51, Lanarkshire 169, Lothian 121, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 49, Western Isles 5
5 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩2)
108 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change since yesterday)
1672 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3%). As at 3rd February, there were 1097 people delayed in hospital.
As of today, 866823 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 10690 their second.
This means that since yesterday 27557 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 108 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.
Graph 1 – Positive tests still trending down – we have arrived at the green line, representing 60% of October maximum. I expect to hover around here from now on – but who knows? This trend in positive tests is endlessly surprising.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down. I still think it will level off at the December level this week.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall really fast – this is fantastic news because it suggests very few in the community are seeking out test and very few people are showing symptoms of covid.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast now too, ITU occupancy has fallen through the level of October peak and is in a steep decline. Deaths are not falling so quickly – more below. The deaths curve is always a little capricious. Hospital admissions are falling quite quickly as shown on the Public Health Scotland, and the hospital occupancy is not falling quickly enough to match that fall in admissions. This implies that there are a lot of patients becoming covid patients while in hospital – but we can’t know because the data on admissions and occupancy are always hard to match.
Graph 5 – Tests from both channels really low today.
Graph 6 – Still a marked trend of positive test numbers following the number of tests reported – the red line is running parallel to the tops of the blue bars. This is an indication we are reaching endemic level – constant in the population tested, or the false positive rate. Or a combination of the two.
Graph 7 – Look at how low these positive numbers are going – in all regions! Forth Valley positive test numbers are back to the level they were at at the end of January. The outbreak there has clearly ended.
Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death has changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. This hump we have seen in deaths latterly is really troubling me. I cannot imagine a sharp fall in deaths this week, but if we don’t see a very significant and fast fall, that really will need to be explained. The fact is that these deaths are emerging from a very much smaller pool of positive tests, and have been for some time. It’s like they are without roots. What has changed? Is it that deaths are being attributed without a positive test all of a sudden? I really am very troubled by this and it will be very much in my sights to get an answer as to what is happening here.
Graph 10 – Positive tests continue to be a really good indicator for ITU occupancy with a 16 day lag, which is a further indication that the graphs 8&9 above are representing a new phenomenon.
Graph 11 – ITU occupancy has fallen really significantly now.
Graph 12 – ITU occupancy by region falling everywhere. That’s Forth Valley fallen off the chart now because it has gone below 5 patients.
Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy is flat or falling everywhere – significantly – except Forth Valley which is still seeing a steady rising trend in occupancy, even as ITU occupancy has fallen.
Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Of course, we should continue to see new positives fall as the vaccine is rolled out.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪