Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ and National Records for Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats
**All NRS data as updated for Week 4 of 2021
Data 7th February 2021:
584 new +ve tests (⇩35% since yesterday)
9479 new tests reporting (⇩47%)
This is 6.2% positive percentage rate (⇧1.2%)
In total including repeat tests 658 were +ve – this is a 6.9% rate (⇧1.0%)
2989 newly tested individuals reported (⇩36%).
Local positive tests numbers from last 24 hours:
Ayrshire and Arran 47, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 11, Fife 25, Forth Valley 60, Grampian 44, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 125, Highland 15, Lanarkshire 129, Lothian 72, Orkney 0, Shetland 1, Tayside 47, Western Isles 2
7 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩41)
108 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩9)
1710 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.1%)
As of today, 839266 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 10582 their second.
This means that since yesterday 52839 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 250 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
The ONS estimates 1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.
Graph 1 – Positive tests trending down – I still think they will bounce around this green line, but let’s see! This was a very surprisingly small number of positives today. But a very small number of tests too.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down. I think it will level off at the December level this week.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall really quite fast – this is great news and suggests very few in the community are seeking out tests. This is presumably because so few people are showing symptoms of covid.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy falling fast now too, ITU occupancy at level of October peak but in a steep decline. Deaths are not falling so quickly – more below. The deaths curve is always a little capricious because of the low numbers always reported at the weekend. I’ve added a wee dotted line marking the reported delayed discharge numbers. These are patients who have no clinical need to be in hospital but are delayed. It may often be the case these patients are covid-positive, which is why they are delayed. So there will be a reasonable crossover between delayed discharge and hospital occupancy.
Graph 5 – I have included this graph now we have another full week of data to put in it. Still seeing this rather strange phenomenon of tests being proportionately more positive at the start of the week. We have never really come up with a satisfactory explanation of why this might be. It hasn’t changed even as the testing ratio of NHS to community has changed recently.
Graph 6 – Tests from both channels really low today.
Graph 7 – Still a marked trend of positive test numbers following the number of tests reported – at a lower ratio now than at New Year.
Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death has changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. This strange hump we have seen in deaths recently is really troubling. I don’t understand what could be causing it but it is very significant. If deaths don’t fall quickly now, that really will be a bit of a mystery – and a grim one at that. This is very important and we will be keeping a close eye on it.
Graph 10 – Positive tests continue to be a good indicator for ITU occupancy with a 16 day lag.
Graph 11 – ITU occupancy has fallen really significantly now. In fact, it’s plummeting.
Graph 12 – ITU occupancy by region falling everywhere.
Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy is flat or falling everywhere except Forth Valley.
Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Of course, we should continue to see new positives fall as the vaccine is rolled out.
Graph 16 – Again in Week 4, there are more covid deaths than there are excess deaths. This is a bit odd.
Graph 17 – Covid is still the biggest single cause of death, and contributing more as time goes on now. Other causes remaining similar.
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Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪