Data for 6th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 6th February 2021:

895 new +ve tests (exactly the same number as yesterday)

17940 new tests reporting (⇩18%)

This is 5.0% positive percentage rate (⇧0.9%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1064 were +ve – this is a 5.9% rate (⇧1.0)

 

4693 newly tested individuals reported (⇧4%).

 

Local data:

Ayrshire and Arran 69, Borders 9, Dumfries and Galloway 18, Fife 30, Forth Valley 97, Grampian 33, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 253, Highland 34, Lanarkshire 158, Lothian 133, Orkney 1, Shetland 0, Tayside 57, Western Isles 3

 

48 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩13)

117 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩6)

1729 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4%) – quite a big drop today!

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 786427 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 10332 their second.

This means that since yesterday 43915 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 803 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110 the previous week.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Positive tests trending down – I still think they will bounce around this green line, but let’s see!

Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down.

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall and are now falling below the level they were at in September – this is really good news and suggests very few in the community are seeking out tests. This is presumably because so few people are showing symptoms of covid.

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy, ITU occupancy and deaths all falling now. The deaths curve is always a little capricious because of the low numbers always reported at the weekend, but they really have to come down when the positive tests trend is so clearly falling. This is all a relieving sight.

Graph 5 – This is the first time in a few days that community tests have outnumbered NHS tests.

Graph 6 – Forth Valley is the only region seeing a rise in positive tests. All the other regions are falling.

Graph 7 – Forth Valley – there has been a wee outbreak, clearly. The numbers will come down again soon, I’m very sure. Still nothing more than we saw after Christmas.

Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death has changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. This strange hump we have seen in deaths recently is really troubling. I don’t understand what could be causing it but it is very significant. If deaths don’t fall quickly now, that really will be a bit of a mystery – and a grim one at that.

Graph 10 – This shows a very encouraging sign that mortality from covid has indeed started to fall again over the last few days, when looking at the 7- and 5-day lags – obviously a relief and a very good sign.

Graph 11 – ITU occupancy is falling really significantly and did not reach the level of the first wave.

Graph 12 – This is just superb news on this graph. Glasgow is seeing a really fast drop in ITU occupancy.

Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy is falling everywhere except perhaps Forth Valley.. and I wonder how this relates to the rise in positive cases we are seeing there? Hospital occupancy has gone up by 9 patients, and we have 97 new positives in the region today. ITU occupancy has not changed.

Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. They continue apace. Of course, we should continue to see new positives fall as the vaccine is rolled out.


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Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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