Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 5th February 2021:
895 new +ve tests (⇩22% on yesterday)
21943 new tests reporting (⇩21%)
This is 4.1% positive percentage rate (⇩0.1%)
In total including repeat tests 1080 were +ve – this is a 4.9% rate (unchanged since yesterday)
4517 newly tested individuals reported (⇩17%).
Ayrshire and Arran 76, Borders 5, Dumfries and Galloway 25, Fife 24, Forth Valley 92, Grampian 55, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 264, Highland 47, Lanarkshire 134, Lothian 103, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 63, Western Isles 7
61 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧8)
123 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩4)
1794 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1%)
As of today, 742512 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 9529 their second.
This means that since yesterday 48165 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 498 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
1 in 115 people had the coronavirus in the week 24th to 30th January – this is down from 1 in 110.
Graph 1 – Positive tests 7 day average trace is turning along that green line of 60% of October maximum line, as I predicted earlier in the week. I do think it will bounce along at this level now, because I think this is the covid floor under current testing conditions.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall and are now falling below the level they were at in September – this is really good news.
Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy, ITU occupancy and deaths all falling now. The deaths curve is always a little capricious because of the low numbers always reported at the weekend, but they really have to come down when the positive tests trend is so clearly falling.
Graph 5 – A record again for NHS testing and very low community testing. This is clearly a ‘new normal’. Today, the ratio of NHS tests to Community tests is 1.75:1. If each channel produced their fair share of positives, that would mean around 325 were from the community and 570 from the NHS. We need to know the split.
Graph 6 – Forth Valley is the only region seeing a rise in cases. All the other regions are falling.
Graph 7 – Forth Valley – there has been a wee outbreak. The numbers will come down again now, I’m very sure.
Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death has changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. But we can also see a ‘hump’ of deaths which are apparently unaccounted for by the positive tests, going by the previous relationship. This is strange and implies a sudden surge in deadliness. Thankfully, this is coming down now, and should do so quickly now, if positive tests have any predictive values.
Graph 10 – ITU occupancy is reduced significantly and did not reach the level of the first wave.
Graph 11 – Going regional with ITU occupancy, you can see it’s trending down or flat in every region. I’ve taken out the regions with no (or just noisy) ITU occupancy to make the graph a bit clearer to read.
Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy is flat or falling everywhere and I have taken out some of the lower occupancy hospitals to make the graph easier to look at.
Graph 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. It looks like yesterday was the highest ever number of first doses delivered. Second doses still a struggle. Things are definitely speeding up.
Graph 15 – Prevalence has fallen in the community. I’ll follow this measure closely from now on.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪