Data for 4th February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 4th February 2021:

1149 new +ve tests (⇧17% on yesterday)

27668 new tests reporting (⇧21%)

This is 4.2% positive percentage rate (⇩0.1%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1358 were +ve – this is a 4.9% rate (⇩0.2%)

 

5411 newly tested individuals reported (⇧10%).

 

Local data:

Ayrshire and Arran 60, Borders 19, Dumfries and Galloway 17, Fife 46, Forth Valley 132, Grampian 77, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 339, Highland 38, Lanarkshire 190, Lothian 159, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 67, Western Isles 5

 

53 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇩35)

127 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩1)

1812 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩3%)

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 694347 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 9031 their second.

This means that since yesterday 45085 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 273 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

1 in 110 people had the coronavirus in the week 17th to 23rd January.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Positive tests 7 day average trace is turning along that green line of 60% of October maximum line, as I predicted earlier in the week.

Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off but still trending down.

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall and are now falling below the level they were at in September – this is really good news.

Graph 4 – Hospital occupancy, ITU occupancy and deaths all seem to be falling now. The deaths curve is always a little capricious because of the low numbers always reported at the weekend. But for a Thursday, this is a relatively low death count.

Graph 5 – A record again for NHS testing and very low community testing. This is clearly a ‘new normal’. Today, the ratio of NHS tests to Community tests is 1.51:1. If each channel produced the same share of positives, that would mean around 460 were from the community and 690 from the NHS. We need to know the split.

Graph 6 – Forth Valley is the only region seeing a rise in cases. All the other regions are falling.

Graph 7 – Forth Valley

Graphs 8&9 – These show how the lag between positive test to death has changed from 18 days to 7 days after Christmas. But we can also see a ‘hump’ of deaths which are apparently unaccounted for by the positive tests, going by the previous relationship. This is strange and implies a sudden surge in deadliness.

Graph 10 – ITU occupancy is reduced significantly and did not reach the level of the first wave, although it’s a longer peak.

Graph 11 – Going regional with ITU occupancy, you can see it’s trending down or flat in every region.

Graph 12 – Hospital occupancy has only risen today in Fife and Forth Valley. Forth Valley seems to be trending up, but Fife isn’t.

Graph 13&14 – Vaccinations as seen below. It looks like yesterday was the highest ever number of first doses delivered. Second doses still a struggle.

 

Tweet and share!

Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x


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