Data for 3rd February 2021

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Hello Friends! 🕵️‍♂️📰📉

 

For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

 

Data 3rd February 2021:

978 new +ve tests (⇧29% on yesterday)

22807 new tests reporting (⇧79%)

This is 4.3% positive percentage rate (⇩1.7%)

 

In total including repeat tests 1172 were +ve – this is a 5.1% rate (⇩2.3%)

 

4928 newly tested individuals reported (⇧45%).

 

Local data:

Ayrshire and Arran 82, Borders 11, Dumfries and Galloway 13, Fife 42, Forth Valley 101, Grampian 53, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 306, Highland 42, Lanarkshire 168, Lothian 82, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 77, Western Isles 1

 

88 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧19)

128 people in ITU with recently +ve test (⇩15)

1871 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩4%)

 

Vaccinations

As of today, 649262 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 8758 their second.

This means that since yesterday 38484 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 413 with their second.

 

ONS Prevalence Survey

1 in 110 people had the coronavirus in the week 17th to 23rd January.

 

Comment:

Graph 1 – Positive tests 7 day average trace is almost certain to cross that 60% of October maximum line – I did not think at New Year that could possibly have happened this quickly.

Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off.

Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall and are now falling below the level they were at in September – this is really good news.

Graph 4 – Hospital and ITU occupancy have taken a wee nosedive today – I think there has been a reporting correction, clearly, in the last 24 hours.

Graph 5 – Second highest ever day for NHS testing and very low community testing again. Splitting the positive tests in the ratio of the NHS to community tests (1.84:1), there would have been approximately 340 positive tests in the community and 640 in the NHS.

Graphs 6, 7, 8 & 9 – I’ve put these in today to show you more granularity in the detail of the positive tests by region.

Graphs 10&11 – This pair of graphs show how the lag has changed between tests and death. In the autumn, 18 days from test to death was a good match, but now, it’s more like 7 days. You can see a nice match in the peak in January. However, we are now seeing a load of unaccounted for deaths, in terms of the positive tests in that final hump furthest to the right. This is very strange.

Graph 12 – Going regional with ITU occupancy, you can see it’s trending down or flat in every region.

Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy is at least flattening everywhere now – and this is the depth of winter.

Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below.


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Lots of love ❤

Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪

Christine x

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