Hello Friends! 🕵️♂️📰📉
For clarity, all today’s stats come from Government stats at https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Data 2nd February 2021:
758 new +ve tests (⇩11% on yesterday)
12731* new tests reporting (⇧21%) – This is asterisked on the government’s website, but I don’t know why
This is 6.0% positive percentage rate (⇩2.1%)
In total including repeat tests 937 were +ve – this is a 7.4% rate (⇩2.1%)
3407 newly tested individuals reported (⇩11%).
Ayrshire and Arran 64, Borders 6, Dumfries and Galloway 16, Fife 39, Forth Valley 71, Grampian 45, Greater Glasgow and Clyde 261, Highland 11, Lanarkshire 138, Lothian 63, Orkney 0, Shetland 0, Tayside 37, Western Isles 7
69 new reported deaths in those who have tested +ve (⇧63)
143 people in ITU with recently +ve test (no change)
1939 admitted or moving through hospital with a recently positive test – through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (⇩1.0%)
As of today, 610778 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 8345 their second.
This means that since yesterday 34881 people were vaccinated with their first dose and 496 with their second.
ONS Prevalence Survey
1 in 110 people had the coronavirus in the week 17th to 23rd January.
Graph 1 – Positive tests are really low again today but I think the rate of decrease is lessening.
Graph 2 – The percentage positive is levelling off.
Graph 3 – Newly tested individuals are continuing to fall and are now at the level they were at in September – this is really good news.
Graph 4 – Hospital and ITU occupancy look to be falling trend-wise, slowly as we saw in the October wave – but there needs to be some discussion about this! You can see in October that the hospital/ITU occupancy fell at a similar rate to positive tests. And yet now, despite a sustained fall in positive tests, hospital and ITU occupancy is falling much more slowly. I did wonder for a while if this made sense because obviously a covid positive patient in hospital won’t have their stay in hospital affected in length by the number of new positive tests coming through, but I’m wondering if for some reason these patients are taking longer to get out of hospital. Deaths still look flat, and if they don’t fall soon, it will imply that covid mortality is rising.
Graph 5 – This is a graph I haven’t shown before, but I’ve been watching it climb for some time. It shows that today’s reported tests were the highest from the NHS compared to the Community ever – by some margin! If we assumed an even prevalence in hospital and the community (a HUGE assumption!), using this ratio today (1.9:1), we would have had around 260 positive cases in the community throughout Scotland today and about 500 from hospitals/NHS testing. We urgently need the positives split by ‘pillar’, because the relative size of the NHS community compared to the rest of the Scottish community is very small.
Graph 6 – Testing looks so unusual still from the two channels. Community testing is very low, and NHS tests relatively low.
Graphs 7, 8, 9 & 10 – Things are changing a bit here and these graphs need updated, I think, using a different lag. But that in itself is interesting. We seem to be losing correlation for ITU occupancy and deaths from positive tests.
Graph 11 – Looking at the green line, you can see that ITU occupancy isn’t anywhere near the level it was in the first wave, from a country-wide point of view.
Graph 12 – Going regional with ITU occupancy, you can see it’s trending down in every region, and Fife has fallen off the graph this week, having gone below the 5 patients threshold for reporting. There has been a significant fall in Glasgow, which is great news – and Lanarkshire too.
Graph 13 – Hospital occupancy is at least flattening everywhere now – and this is the depth of winter.
Graph 14&15 – Vaccinations as seen below. Second doses are very slow to get off the ground, and first doses are a little unpredictable.
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Lots of love ❤
Stay sane 🧠 Stay strong 💪